No 165 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 84% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (17,846 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

Route 165: Innovation ⇄ Terry Fox

Every 30 to 60 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 2 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 2.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 300 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

300 with position · 0 to investigate · 0 excluded · 300 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 11:55 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 300 / 300 (100%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 10:38 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

84%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 17,846
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

5 a.m.100% · 160 predictions · 10 days
6 a.m.96% · 600 predictions · 12 days
7 a.m.94% · 723 predictions · 12 days
8 a.m.65% · 724 predictions · 14 days
9 a.m.80% · 767 predictions · 14 days
10 a.m.88% · 446 predictions · 14 days
11 a.m.90% · 441 predictions · 14 days
12 p.m.91% · 447 predictions · 14 days
1 p.m.89% · 448 predictions · 14 days
2 p.m.84% · 468 predictions · 14 days
3 p.m.76% · 738 predictions · 14 days
4 p.m.86% · 778 predictions · 14 days
5 p.m.64% · 757 predictions · 14 days
6 p.m.77% · 518 predictions · 14 days
7 p.m.98% · 439 predictions · 14 days
8 p.m.93% · 379 predictions · 12 days
9 p.m.94% · 388 predictions · 12 days
10 p.m.99% · 337 predictions · 12 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

18 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 12 of 6,408 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

0% of pairs (2) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Time of day	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	2,315	0% (1)	0% (0)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	1,183	0% (0)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	2,262	0% (4)	0% (2)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	648	1% (7)	0% (0)

How this is measured →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: TERRY FOX 4B to HUNTSVILLE / INGERSOLL, 26.4 km/h actual against 28.5 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
From	To	Distance	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
TERRY FOX 4B	HUNTSVILLE / INGERSOLL	4.5 km	28.5 km/h	26.4 km/h	492	3%
INNOVATION A	KANATA / HUNTSVILLE	4.1 km	38.4 km/h	32 km/h	545	23%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

How this is measured →

City road work near this route

Road work and event road closures the City of Ottawa has published, measured as near this route’s path. Near is not proof that the bus is detoured: check the operator’s own alerts for that.

Road work
Veteran between Viscount and Crerar
Apr 13, 2026, 6:00 a.m. to Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 p.m.
Veteran periodic lane reductions between Viscount and Crerar due to construction. April 13th to November 13th.
about 4 m from the route
City record updated Sep 4, 2026, 9:24 a.m..

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

Source: City of Ottawa traffic events (road work and closures). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. The City says this list is best effort and may be incomplete. City of Ottawa traffic map ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Verdict

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.3 to 3.8 min later than the timetable in 4 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.6 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

17:00 has 64% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 90% the rest of the day.

Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 18 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 160 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
06:00: 95.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 600 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
07:00: 94.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 723 predictions, typically 2 min late
08:00: 65.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 724 predictions, typically 4.3 min late
09:00: 80.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 767 predictions, typically 3.2 min late
10:00: 87.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 446 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
11:00: 90.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 441 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
12:00: 91.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 447 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
13:00: 89.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 448 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
14:00: 84.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 468 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
15:00: 75.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 738 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
16:00: 85.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 778 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
17:00: 63.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 757 predictions, typically 3.5 min late
18:00: 76.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 518 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
19:00: 97.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 439 predictions, typically 1 min late
20:00: 93.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 379 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
21:00: 93.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 388 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
22:00: 98.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 337 predictions, typically 1 min late
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	When	Measured	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	08:00 to 10:00 · 15:00 · 17:00	3.8 min late … 3.5 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	17:00	64%	Operations, not the timetable
StrengthObserved-position lower bound	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 08:00 to 10:00: Measured arrivals 1,491; Hours affected 2; Spread 5 min; Median delay 3.8 min; Suggested running time change 3.8 min
Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 757; Hours affected 1; Spread 19.9 min; Median delay 3.5 min; Suggested running time change 3.5 min
Predictions later than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 738; Hours affected 1; Spread 4.3 min; Median delay 3.3 min; Suggested running time change 3.3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 17:00: Hour 17:00; On time 63.8%; Measured arrivals 757; Shortfall 25.9 pts; Route median on time 89.7%
Observed-position lower bound · All measured hours: Target 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 100%; Service days 5; Trips with a matching position 300; Scheduled trips 300

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 165 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were usually close to schedule, but check the problem times below.

84 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 17,846 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 17,846 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 10:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

5 p.m.–6 p.m.: 36 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (757 predictions over 14 days).
8 a.m.–9 a.m.: 35 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (724 predictions over 14 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

We do not yet have enough route-by-stop history to name a recurring problem stop. Rider reports are used as leads, not proof.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: No trips start in the next 4 hoursChecks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 0 of 300 checked trips need a closer look0 of 300 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 300 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 7.8 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)84 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned; they do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check the first Monday after the new schedule began and the Monday one week earlier. Every figure comes from the retained official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Before

Service date checked: October 26, 2026

Scheduled trips: 49
Distinct scheduled stops: 34
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:25 a.m.–10:36 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Feed fingerprint: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

New schedule

Service date checked: November 2, 2026

Scheduled trips: 49
Distinct scheduled stops: 34
Distinct published paths: 2
Published service span: 5:25 a.m.–10:36 p.m.

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Feed fingerprint: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Did service improve after the change?

We will compare settled arrivals for the 14 days before and after the change. We publish the comparison only after both sides have at least 7 service days and 200 arrivals.

Still collecting: before has 9,558 arrivals over 14 days; after has 3,229 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 84.0%
Eligible predictions checked: 17,846
Weekdays with data: 19
95th-percentile predicted delay: 7.8 min late

Patterns by hour (18)

Patterns by hour (18)
Hour	On time	Median	95th percentile	Evidence
05:00	100.0%	0.7 min late	1.7 min late	160 · 10 days
06:00	95.8%	0.5 min late	4.4 min late	600 · 12 days
07:00	94.3%	2 min late	5.1 min late	723 · 12 days
08:00	65.1%	4.3 min late	10.6 min late	724 · 14 days
09:00	80.3%	3.2 min late	6.9 min late	767 · 14 days
10:00	87.7%	2.6 min late	6.4 min late	446 · 14 days
11:00	90.2%	2.7 min late	5.9 min late	441 · 14 days
12:00	91.3%	2.1 min late	5.5 min late	447 · 14 days
13:00	89.1%	1.3 min late	5.9 min late	448 · 14 days
14:00	84.2%	2.1 min late	7.4 min late	468 · 14 days
15:00	75.6%	3.3 min late	7.6 min late	738 · 14 days
16:00	85.6%	2.1 min late	6.9 min late	778 · 14 days
17:00	63.8%	3.5 min late	23.4 min late	757 · 14 days
18:00	76.8%	2.8 min late	10.5 min late	518 · 14 days
19:00	97.7%	1 min late	4.3 min late	439 · 14 days
20:00	93.1%	0.3 min late	5.2 min late	379 · 12 days
21:00	93.6%	0.8 min late	5.5 min late	388 · 12 days
22:00	98.8%	1 min late	3.8 min late	337 · 12 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

300 / 300 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (100.0%).

05:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
06:000 / 21 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 22 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 24 trips without a position100.0%
09:000 / 24 trips without a position100.0%
10:000 / 14 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 49 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 49 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:25– 05:39
Trip 36344030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:03 a.m. EST / 5:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:00– 06:16
Trip 29437030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:55 a.m. EST / 6:28 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:20– 06:36
Trip 10853030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:57 a.m. EST / 6:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:30– 06:46
Trip 11970030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:25 a.m. EST / 6:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:50– 07:06
Trip 32749030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:12 a.m. EST / 7:24 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:00– 07:16
Trip 4507030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:55 a.m. EST / 7:15 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:20– 07:36
Trip 8218030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:18 a.m. EST / 7:43 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:30– 07:46
Trip 5229030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:25 a.m. EST / 7:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:48– 08:04
Trip 15405030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:50 a.m. EST / 8:09 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:00– 08:16
Trip 27757030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:49 a.m. EST / 8:19 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:20– 08:36
Trip 7473030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:20 a.m. EST / 8:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:30– 08:46
Trip 32558030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:22 a.m. EST / 8:53 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day