Detour Route 56 South: Route 56 diverted from de Lucerne to Eastern.+1 more notice

No 56 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 48.4% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (9,739 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO route 56: Gal.Aylmer/Des Trembles/Cégep

Toward Cégep GRoy0 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 67 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

67 with position · 0 to investigate · 13 excluded · 80 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 2:57 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 4 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

13 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 67 / 80 (83.8%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 1:38 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

48.4%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 9,739
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0638% · 356 predictions · 6 days
0718% · 622 predictions · 6 days
0814% · 317 predictions · 7 days
0927% · 297 predictions · 8 days
1019% · 346 predictions · 8 days
1126% · 392 predictions · 9 days
1249% · 705 predictions · 9 days
1379% · 295 predictions · 8 days
1479% · 326 predictions · 8 days
1582% · 385 predictions · 9 days
1657% · 299 predictions · 9 days
1744% · 333 predictions · 9 days
1874% · 363 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

13 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

13% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 144 of 1,101 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

4% of pairs (49) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Tó: nikahwistá:ke	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	1,101	13% (144)	4% (49)

Tsi ní:ioht →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY to de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS, 4.7 km/h actual against 20.3 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
Tsi nón:we	Tsi nón:we	Tsi niió:re (distance)	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
CEGEP GABRIELLE-ROY	de la CITÉ-DES-JEUNES/PERRAS	340 m	20.3 km/h	4.7 km/h	63	84%
PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	de LUCERNE/FRASER	3.8 km	20.7 km/h	10.4 km/h	84	68%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	3.8 km	24.8 km/h	13.2 km/h	97	73%
chemin d'AYLMER/ROYALE	SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES	450 m	17 km/h	15.8 km/h	103	20%
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/PRINCIPALE	de LUCERNE/FRASER	2.5 km	26.3 km/h	16.2 km/h	61	46%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	WILFRID-LAVIGNE/LEGUERRIER	2.6 km	20.8 km/h	17.7 km/h	85	20%
SAINT-RAYMOND/des CAPUCINES	SAINT-RAYMOND/LOUISE-CAMPAGNA	3.1 km	19.2 km/h	21.3 km/h	102	3%
LOUISE-CAMPAGNA/SAINT-RAYMOND	SAINT-RAYMOND/MARCEL-CHAPUT	3 km	19.7 km/h	21.8 km/h	83	0%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

Tsi ní:ioht →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 0 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 6 a.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Fri, Oct 23, scheduled 06:53

A cause is shown only when STO’s own alert for that trip gives one.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	Wísk niwenhniserá:ke	Entákta	Awentatokentì:ke
Before 6 am	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats7.5% of 173 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats0.9% of 215 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats32.5% of 114 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats6.6% of 61 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
After 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings

Based on 56 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Ka' nikarihò:ten

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 5.1 to 7.8 min later than the timetable in 9 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.4 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 6.9 min along the route.

Wide prediction spread 16:00 to 19:00: the 95th percentile is 22.7 min later than the median.

08:00 has 14% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 44% the rest of the day.

Scenario: 5 to 8 min more running time on 48 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 13 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 37.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 356 predictions, typically 6.9 min late
07:00: 17.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 622 predictions, typically 16 min late
08:00: 13.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 317 predictions, typically 20.3 min late
09:00: 27.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 297 predictions, typically 7.8 min late
10:00: 19.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 346 predictions, typically 12.5 min late
11:00: 26.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 392 predictions, typically 7.3 min late
12:00: 48.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 705 predictions, typically 6.1 min late
13:00: 79% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 295 predictions, typically 0.4 min early
14:00: 79.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 326 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
15:00: 81.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 385 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
16:00: 57.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 299 predictions, typically 3.9 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
17:00: 43.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 333 predictions, typically 6.4 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
18:00: 73.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 363 predictions, typically 1.7 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data
prediction spread of 20 min or more between the 95th percentile and median

Findings
What	Ó:nen	Tewaterièn:tare	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	06:00 to 13:00 · 16:00 to 18:00	7.8 min late · 5.1 min late	More running time
ProblemWide prediction spread	16:00 to 19:00	22.7 min swing	Operations, not the timetable
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	08:00	14%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 06:00 to 13:00: Measured arrivals 3,035; Hours affected 7; Spread 10 min; Median delay 7.8 min; Suggested running time change 7.8 min
Wide prediction spread · 16:00 to 19:00: Measured arrivals 995; Hours affected 3; Spread 22.7 min; Median delay 3.9 min; Suggested running time change 3.9 min
Predictions later than timetable · 16:00 to 18:00: Measured arrivals 632; Hours affected 2; Spread 23.7 min; Median delay 5.1 min; Suggested running time change 5.1 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 08:00: Hour 08:00; Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes 13.9%; Measured arrivals 317; Shortfall 29.9 pts; Route median on time 43.8%

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 56 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were often far from the timetable in this dated sample.

48 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 9,739 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 9,739 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 2:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

08–09: 86 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (317 predictions over 7 days).
07–08: 83 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (622 predictions over 6 days).
10–11: 81 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (346 predictions over 8 days).
11–12: 74 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (392 predictions over 9 days).

2 current notices affect this route

• Detour Route 56 South
• Detour Route 56 North

Prediction differences by stop

VANIER/de LUCERNE
98 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (120 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop
VANIER/CRESCENT
97 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (121 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop
chemin d'AYLMER/MORLEY-WALTERS
94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop
VANIER/des VÉTÉRANS
94 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (123 predictions over 17 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 4Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 0 of 67 checked trips need a closer look0 of 67 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 13 of 80 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 22.0 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)48 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned. They do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 2, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check ne first Monday after ne á:se schedule began, tánon ne Monday one week earlier. Akwé:kon figures, official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Ohén:ton

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: October 26, 2026

Schedule trips: 0
Distinct scheduled stops: 0
Distinct published paths: 0
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: —–—

Kahiatónhsera: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

New schedule

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: November 2, 2026

Schedule trips: 16
Distinct scheduled stops: 96
Distinct published paths: 2
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 06:24–18:54

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

Did service improve after the change?

Enkwatkáhtho' ne arrivals 14 wenhniserá:tens tsi niió:re aorí:wa ne change tánon' ohnà:ken. Ne tsi enkwatkáhtho' entewahró:ri' tsi nikarì:wes ne 7 wenhniserá:tens tánon' 200 arrivals iá:ken'.

Still collecting: before has 5,494 arrivals over 10 days; after has 840 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 48.4%
Eligible predictions checked: 9,739
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 22 min late

Patterns by hour (13)

Patterns by hour (13)
Hour	Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes	Median	95th percentile	Tsi tó:kenske
06:00	37.6%	6.9 min late	18.9 min late	356 · 6 days
07:00	17.5%	16 min late	23.7 min late	622 · 6 days
08:00	13.9%	20.3 min late	30.3 min late	317 · 7 days
09:00	27.3%	7.8 min late	17.3 min late	297 · 8 days
10:00	19.4%	12.5 min late	16.7 min late	346 · 8 days
11:00	26.3%	7.3 min late	17.9 min late	392 · 9 days
12:00	48.5%	6.1 min late	23.4 min late	705 · 9 days
13:00	79.0%	0.4 min early	16.7 min late	295 · 8 days
14:00	79.1%	0.3 min late	17.8 min late	326 · 8 days
15:00	81.6%	0.8 min late	18.9 min late	385 · 9 days
16:00	57.2%	3.9 min late	26.5 min late	299 · 9 days
17:00	43.8%	6.4 min late	31.3 min late	333 · 9 days
18:00	73.8%	1.7 min late	22 min late	363 · 8 days

9 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

67 / 80 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (83.8%).

06:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
07:004 / 10 trips without a position60.0%
13:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
18:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
12:001 / 10 trips without a position90.0%
08:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 11 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 5 with an unknown outcome.

06:24– 07:07
Trip sto:63296203Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:47– 07:39
Trip sto:63295587Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:53– 07:45
Trip sto:63296395Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:26– 08:10
Trip sto:63296204Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:56– 08:40
Trip sto:63295295Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:56– 09:40
Trip sto:63290358Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:22 a.m. EST / 9:36 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:05– 10:45
Trip sto:63295375Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:18 a.m. EST / 10:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:03– 11:45
Trip sto:63295750Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 11:03 a.m. EST / 11:45 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:03– 12:45
Trip sto:63295472Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:17 p.m. EST / 12:55 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
12:10– 12:51
Trip sto:63294905Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:07 p.m. EST / 12:49 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
13:10– 13:52
Trip sto:63290360Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 12:55 p.m. EST / 1:36 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
14:10– 14:53
Trip sto:63290332Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 2:08 p.m. EST / 2:53 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

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This page is a machine draft in Mohawk (Kanien’kéha), the language of the Kanien’kehá:ka (Mohawk) communities. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en mohawk (kanien’kéha), la langue des communautés kanien’kehá:ka (mohawks). Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).