No 165 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 84.1% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (17,898 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

Oháha 165: Innovation ⇄ Terry Fox

Every 30 to 60 min

Toward Innovation0 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 2 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 2.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 300 trips with a usable feed window (0.3%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

299 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 300 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 6:52 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 8 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 299 / 300 (99.7%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 6:09 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

84.1%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 17,898
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: Oct 7, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

05100% · 176 predictions · 11 days
0696% · 657 predictions · 13 days
0795% · 789 predictions · 13 days
0863% · 786 predictions · 15 days
0978% · 831 predictions · 15 days
1089% · 478 predictions · 15 days
1191% · 473 predictions · 15 days
1292% · 479 predictions · 15 days
1388% · 480 predictions · 15 days
1484% · 502 predictions · 15 days
1574% · 799 predictions · 15 days
1687% · 843 predictions · 15 days
1763% · 805 predictions · 15 days
1878% · 557 predictions · 15 days
1998% · 471 predictions · 15 days
2094% · 411 predictions · 13 days
2194% · 420 predictions · 13 days
2299% · 369 predictions · 13 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 5, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

18 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 26 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 11 of 6,404 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

0% of pairs (2) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Tó: nikahwistá:ke	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	2,321	0% (0)	0% (0)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	1,205	0% (0)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	2,230	0% (4)	0% (2)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	648	1% (7)	0% (0)

Tsi ní:ioht →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: TERRY FOX 4B to HUNTSVILLE / INGERSOLL, 26.4 km/h actual against 28.5 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
Tsi nón:we	Tsi nón:we	Tsi niió:re (distance)	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
TERRY FOX 4B	HUNTSVILLE / INGERSOLL	4.5 km	28.5 km/h	26.4 km/h	493	3%
INNOVATION A	KANATA / HUNTSVILLE	4.1 km	38.4 km/h	32 km/h	546	23%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

Tsi ní:ioht →

City road work, kí:ken route

Road work tánon event road closures, City of Ottawa published. Measured near ne route. Near iah proof tsi bus detoured. Check ne operator alerts.

The City’s road work list could not be read right now.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

Source: City of Ottawa traffic events (road work and closures). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence, City of Ottawa. The City says this list is best effort and may be incomplete. City of Ottawa traffic map ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 300 trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Ka' nikarihò:ten

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.3 to 3.8 min later than the timetable in 4 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.8 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

08:00 has 63% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 90% the rest of the day.

Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 18 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 176 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
06:00: 96.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 657 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
07:00: 94.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 789 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
08:00: 63.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 786 predictions, typically 4.4 min late
09:00: 78.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 831 predictions, typically 3.2 min late
10:00: 88.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 478 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
11:00: 90.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 473 predictions, typically 2.4 min late
12:00: 91.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 479 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
13:00: 87.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 480 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
14:00: 83.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 502 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
15:00: 73.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 799 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
16:00: 86.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 843 predictions, typically 2 min late
17:00: 63.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 805 predictions, typically 3.6 min late
18:00: 77.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 557 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
19:00: 97.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 471 predictions, typically 1 min late
20:00: 93.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 411 predictions, typically 0.3 min late
21:00: 94% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 420 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
22:00: 98.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 369 predictions, typically 1 min late
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Ó:nen	Tewaterièn:tare	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	08:00 to 10:00 · 15:00 · 17:00	3.8 min late … 3.6 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	08:00	63%	Operations, not the timetable
StrengthObserved-position lower bound	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 08:00 to 10:00: Measured arrivals 1,617; Hours affected 2; Spread 5 min; Median delay 3.8 min; Suggested running time change 3.8 min
Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 805; Hours affected 1; Spread 18 min; Median delay 3.6 min; Suggested running time change 3.6 min
Predictions later than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 799; Hours affected 1; Spread 6.6 min; Median delay 3.3 min; Suggested running time change 3.3 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 08:00: Hour 08:00; Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes 63.1%; Measured arrivals 786; Shortfall 26.6 pts; Route median on time 89.7%
Observed-position lower bound · All measured hours: Tsi niió:re 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.7%; Wenhniserá:tens tsi ioió'te 5; Trips with a matching position 299; Schedule trips 300

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 165 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were usually close to schedule, but check the problem times below.

84 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 17,898 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 17,898 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 7, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026.

Updated Nov 5, 2026, 6:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

08–09: 37 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (786 predictions over 15 days).
17–18: 37 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (805 predictions over 15 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

We do not yet have enough route-by-stop history to name a recurring problem stop. Rider reports are used as leads, not proof.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 8Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 1 of 300 checked trips need a closer look1 of 300 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 300 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 7.8 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)84 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned. They do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check ne first Monday after ne á:se schedule began, tánon ne Monday one week earlier. Akwé:kon figures, official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Ohén:ton

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: October 26, 2026

Schedule trips: 49
Distinct scheduled stops: 34
Distinct published paths: 2
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 05:25–22:36

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

New schedule

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: November 2, 2026

Schedule trips: 49
Distinct scheduled stops: 34
Distinct published paths: 2
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 05:25–22:36

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Did service improve after the change?

Enkwatkáhtho' ne arrivals 14 wenhniserá:tens tsi niió:re aorí:wa ne change tánon' ohnà:ken. Ne tsi enkwatkáhtho' entewahró:ri' tsi nikarì:wes ne 7 wenhniserá:tens tánon' 200 arrivals iá:ken'.

Still collecting: before has 9,558 arrivals over 14 days; after has 3,997 arrivals over 6 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 7, 2026 to November 4, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 84.1%
Eligible predictions checked: 17,898
Weekdays with data: 19
95th-percentile predicted delay: 7.8 min late

Patterns by hour (18)

Patterns by hour (18)
Hour	Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes	Median	95th percentile	Tsi tó:kenske
05:00	100.0%	0.7 min late	1.7 min late	176 · 11 days
06:00	96.2%	0.5 min late	4.4 min late	657 · 13 days
07:00	94.8%	2.1 min late	5.1 min late	789 · 13 days
08:00	63.1%	4.4 min late	10.3 min late	786 · 15 days
09:00	78.3%	3.2 min late	7.3 min late	831 · 15 days
10:00	88.5%	2.6 min late	6.3 min late	478 · 15 days
11:00	90.9%	2.4 min late	5.9 min late	473 · 15 days
12:00	91.9%	2.1 min late	5.5 min late	479 · 15 days
13:00	87.9%	1.6 min late	6.2 min late	480 · 15 days
14:00	83.9%	2.1 min late	7.8 min late	502 · 15 days
15:00	73.5%	3.3 min late	9.9 min late	799 · 15 days
16:00	86.7%	2 min late	6.8 min late	843 · 15 days
17:00	63.2%	3.6 min late	21.7 min late	805 · 15 days
18:00	77.9%	2.8 min late	10.2 min late	557 · 15 days
19:00	97.9%	1 min late	4.2 min late	471 · 15 days
20:00	93.7%	0.3 min late	5.2 min late	411 · 13 days
21:00	94.0%	0.8 min late	5.4 min late	420 · 13 days
22:00	98.9%	1 min late	3.6 min late	369 · 13 days

2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

299 / 300 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (99.7%).

17:001 / 24 trips without a position95.8%
05:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
06:000 / 21 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 22 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 24 trips without a position100.0%
09:000 / 24 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 4, 2026 November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026

November 4, 2026 · 49 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 48 with a matched position · 1 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

05:25– 05:39
Trip 36344040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:01 a.m. EST / 5:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:00– 06:16
Trip 29437040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:17 a.m. EST / 6:26 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:20– 06:36
Trip 10853040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:57 a.m. EST / 6:53 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:30– 06:46
Trip 11970040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:25 a.m. EST / 6:49 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:50– 07:06
Trip 32749040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:13 a.m. EST / 7:24 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:00– 07:16
Trip 4507040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:55 a.m. EST / 7:20 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:20– 07:36
Trip 8218040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:21 a.m. EST / 7:39 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:30– 07:46
Trip 5229040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:26 a.m. EST / 7:47 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:48– 08:04
Trip 15405040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:48 a.m. EST / 8:08 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:00– 08:16
Trip 27757040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:48 a.m. EST / 8:21 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:20– 08:36
Trip 7473040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:22 a.m. EST / 8:41 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:30– 08:46
Trip 32558040Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:25 a.m. EST / 8:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

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This page is a machine draft in Mohawk (Kanien’kéha), the language of the Kanien’kehá:ka (Mohawk) communities. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en mohawk (kanien’kéha), la langue des communautés kanien’kehá:ka (mohawks). Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).