No 85 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 74.1% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (10,175 arrivals over 17 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO ᐊᖁᑎᖓ 85: Côte-Des-Neiges

ᑐᕌᖓᔪᖅCôteNeiges0 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Trips with any notice: 1.

Trips needing investigation

0 of 82 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

82 with position · 0 to investigate · 23 excluded · 105 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 1:21 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 9 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

23 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 82 / 105 (78.1%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 12:09 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

74.1%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 10,175
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0599% · 254 predictions · 7 days
06100% · 615 predictions · 7 days
0792% · 598 predictions · 6 days
0875% · 393 predictions · 7 days
1564% · 653 predictions · 9 days
1662% · 991 predictions · 10 days
1749% · 1,034 predictions · 9 days
1886% · 463 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

8 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

3% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 238 of 7,364 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

3% of pairs (250) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
ᐅᓪᓗᒥ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Early morning (4 to 6 a.m.)	99	0% (0)	0% (0)
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	2,918	0% (7)	1% (24)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	3,738	6% (218)	5% (191)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	609	2% (13)	6% (35)

ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᒻᒪᖔᑦ →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: CENTRE RIDEAU to KENT / SPARKS, 6.6 km/h actual against 12.1 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
ᐱᒋᐊᕐᕕᒃ	ᑐᕌᕐᕕᒃ	ᐅᖓᓯᒋᓂᖓ	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
CENTRE RIDEAU	KENT / SPARKS	1.2 km	12.1 km/h	6.6 km/h	110	59%
de l'OASIS/de la CITÉ	HÔPITAL DE GATINEAU	590 m	17.8 km/h	10 km/h	80	29%
de l'HÔPITAL/de l'OASIS	de la CITÉ/la VÉRENDRYE OUEST	560 m	8.6 km/h	10.5 km/h	119	0%
KENT / SPARKS	PLACE d'ACCUEIL est	1.1 km	10.6 km/h	11.3 km/h	124	2%
PLACE d'ACCUEIL ouest	CENTRE RIDEAU	2.5 km	12 km/h	12.7 km/h	78	1%
GRÉBER/de POINTE-GATINEAU	d'ORLÉANS/GRÉBER	1.6 km	15.2 km/h	15.4 km/h	132	3%
ERNEST-GABOURY/SAINT-RENÉ OUEST	d'ORLÉANS/GRÉBER	1.3 km	16.5 km/h	17.9 km/h	100	0%
ERNEST-GABOURY/SAINT-RENÉ OUEST	de l'HÔPITAL/de l'OASIS	2.3 km	18 km/h	17.9 km/h	130	3%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᒻᒪᖔᑦ →

ᓄᓇᓕᐅᑉ ᐊᖅᑯᑎᓂᒃ ᐱᓕᕆᓂᖓ ᐅᓇ ᐊᖅᑯᑎ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ

ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓇᓕᖓᑕ ᑐᓴᖅᑎᑦᑎᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᖁᑏᑦ ᓴᓇᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᒪᑐᑦᑕᐅᔪᓪᓗ ᑲᑐᔾᔨᖃᑎᒌᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ, ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᐊᖁᑎᐅᑉ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ. ᖃᓂᒋᔭᐅᓂᖓ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑎᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐸᔅ ᐊᓯᐊᒍᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖓᓂᒃ. ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᖃᐅᔨᔪᒪᒍᕕᑦ, ᐊᐅᓚᑦᑎᔨᐅᑉ ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᖏᑦ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᒋᑦ.

ᐊᖁᑎᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᑦ
ALBERT between ELGIN and METCALFE
Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 a.m. to Jan 26, 2027, 5:00 p.m.
ALBERT lane reduction between ELGIN and METCALFE due to construction, from October 29th to January 26th.
ᓄᓇᓕᐅᑉ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔭᖓ ᐅᓇ ᐊᑦᑐᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᔾᔪᑎᓄᑦ.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Nov 2, 2026, 12:44 p.m..
ᐊᖁᑎᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᑦ
Slater between Bay and Lyon
Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 a.m. to Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 p.m.
Slater lane reduction between Bay and Lyon due to construction, from November 2nd to 6th.
about 0 m from the route
City record updated Oct 30, 2026, 1:28 p.m..
ᐊᖁᑎᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᑦ
ALBERT at LYON
ᐅᓪᓗᖏᑦ ᑐᓴᖅᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᑦ
Albert and Lyon off-peak lane reductions at the intersection due to construction.
about 2 m from the route
City record updated Sep 9, 2026, 6:32 p.m..

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

ᐱᕝᕕᖓ: ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓇᓕᐊ, ᐊᖅᑯᑎᓂ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᒪᑐᓯᒪᔪᓪᓗ. ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ Open Government Licence ᑯᑦ, ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓇᓕᐊ. ᓄᓇᓕᐊ ᐅᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᐹᒥ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ. ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᙱᓐᓇᔭᖅᑐᑦ. ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓈᓖᑦ ᐊᖅᑯᑏᑦ ᓄᓇᙳᐊᖓ ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 1 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 3 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Fri, Oct 30, scheduled 15:07

A cause is shown only when STO’s own alert for that trip gives one.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

When this route is usually busy	ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓰᑦ	ᓈᑦᓰᓈᕐᕕᒃᑯᑦ	ᓈᑦᑏᖑᔭᕐᓂ
Before 6 am	Usually seats6.1% of 66 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually busy62.8% of 277 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
9 am to 3 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats43% of 321 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats4.6% of 65 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
After 10 pm	Not enough readings	Not enough readings	Not enough readings

Based on 56 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.6 to 5.1 min later than the timetable in 2 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 9 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

17:00 has 49% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 81% the rest of the day.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 8 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 98.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 254 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
06:00: 99.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 615 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
07:00: 92.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 598 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
08:00: 75.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 393 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
09:00: not enough data
10:00: not enough data
11:00: not enough data
12:00: not enough data
13:00: not enough data
14:00: not enough data
15:00: 63.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 653 predictions, typically 3.6 min late
16:00: 61.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 991 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
17:00: 49% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,034 predictions, typically 5.1 min late
18:00: 86.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 463 predictions, typically 1 min late
19:00: not enough data
20:00: not enough data
21:00: not enough data
22:00: not enough data
23:00: not enough data

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	ᖃᖓ	ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	15:00 · 17:00	3.6 min late · 5.1 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	17:00	49%	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 1,034; Hours affected 1; Spread 15.5 min; Median delay 5.1 min; Suggested running time change 5.1 min
Predictions later than timetable · 15:00: Measured arrivals 653; Hours affected 1; Spread 5.3 min; Median delay 3.6 min; Suggested running time change 3.6 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 17:00: ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ 17:00; ᐱᕕᒃᓴᖓᓂ 49%; Measured arrivals 1,034; Shortfall 31.7 pts; Route median on time 80.7%

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 85 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.

74 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 10,175 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 10,175 eligible provider predictions over 17 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 12:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

17–18: 51 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,034 predictions over 9 days).
16–17: 38 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (991 predictions over 10 days).
15–16: 36 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (653 predictions over 9 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

MAISONNEUVE/SACRÉ-COEUR
50 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (162 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
MAISONNEUVE/VERDUN
48 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (160 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
FOURNIER/HENRI-GAUTHIER
46 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (161 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop
FOURNIER/BÉRIAULT
45 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (161 predictions over 18 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 9Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 0 of 82 checked trips need a closer look0 of 82 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 23 of 105 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 13.9 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)74 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

ᐊᐅᓪᓚᖅᑕᕐᕕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᓂᖅ

ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖏᑦ ᐅᓪᓗᖏᑦ: ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᓂᓗ

ᐅᓇ ᒫᓐᓇ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᓇᓪᓕᐅᓇᐃᓪᓗᒍ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒧᑦ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᑦ. ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᓚᐅᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᖏᑦᑐᑦ.

Current published schedule began November 2, 2026

ᐅᓪᓗᖅ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓂᓪᓗ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᑦ

ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕈᑦᑕᖅᐳᒍᑦ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᓇᒡᒐᔾᔭᐅ ᓄᑖᑦ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᐊᒻᒪ ᓇᒡᒐᔾᔭᐅ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᓂᑦ ᒐᕙᒪᐅᑉ GTFS ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᖏᓐᓂᑦ. ᐊᑎᖏᑦ ᐊᑖᓂ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᑦ.

ᐅᓪᓗᑦ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᓯᒪᔭᑎᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᐅᓇ ᖁᕕᐊᓱᐊᕐᕕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖃᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕐᕕᐅᔪᓂ ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᐅᒃᓱᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ: October 26, 2026

ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ: 0
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓄᖃᖅᑕᕝᕕᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ: 0
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᖁᑎᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 0
ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖏᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: —–—

ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒋᐊᕈᑎᖓ: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

ᓄᑖᖅ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ: November 2, 2026

ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ: 21
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓄᖃᖅᑕᕝᕕᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ: 80
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᖁᑎᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 2
ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖏᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 05:23–18:35

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒋᐊᕈᑎᖓ: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᐅᓯᕚᓕᓚᐅᖅᐸᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ?

ᑎᑭᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᐊᖅᐸᕗᑦ. 14 ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᖓᑕ ᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂᓗ. ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᓂᐊᖅᐳᒍᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᓕᕋᐃᒐᒃ ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕐᕕᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐅᓪᓗᓂᒃ 7 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ, ᑎᑭᓐᓂᕐᓂᓪᓗ 200 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ.

Still collecting: before has 5,487 arrivals over 10 days; after has 679 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 74.1%
Eligible predictions checked: 10,175
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 13.9 min late

Patterns by hour (8)

Patterns by hour (8)
ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ	ᐱᕕᒃᓴᖓᓂ	Median	95th percentile	ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᑦ
05:00	98.8%	0.7 min late	2.1 min late	254 · 7 days
06:00	99.7%	0.5 min late	3 min late	615 · 7 days
07:00	92.1%	0.7 min late	7 min late	598 · 6 days
08:00	75.1%	2.8 min late	12 min late	393 · 7 days
15:00	63.6%	3.6 min late	9 min late	653 · 9 days
16:00	61.8%	2.8 min late	19.4 min late	991 · 10 days
17:00	49.0%	5.1 min late	20.6 min late	1,034 · 9 days
18:00	86.2%	1 min late	13.4 min late	463 · 8 days

3 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

82 / 105 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (78.1%).

06:006 / 15 trips without a position60.0%
07:008 / 20 trips without a position60.0%
05:002 / 10 trips without a position80.0%
08:001 / 5 trips without a position80.0%
17:003 / 15 trips without a position80.0%
15:003 / 20 trips without a position85.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 21 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 11 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 10 with an unknown outcome.

05:23– 05:58
Trip sto:63294688Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
05:51– 06:29
Trip sto:63295030Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:15– 06:56
Trip sto:63295585Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:30– 07:11
Trip sto:63295085Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:46– 07:30
Trip sto:63296377Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:00– 07:45
Trip sto:63294824Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:16– 08:03
Trip sto:63296166Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:32– 08:19
Trip sto:63295083Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:46– 08:33
Trip sto:63296375Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:06– 08:53
Trip sto:63295689Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
15:07– 15:58
Trip sto:63296379Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:08 p.m. EST / 4:01 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
15:23– 16:11
Trip sto:63295495Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 3:16 p.m. EST / 4:05 p.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

ᑐᕌᕝᑦ

ᑖᓐᓇ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑐᕌᕝᑦᐅᕗᖅ.

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This page is a machine draft in Inuktitut (ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ), the language of the Inuit. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en inuktitut (ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ), la langue des Inuits. Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).