Detour Route 52 South: Route 52 diverted from Eastern to Deschênes.+1 more notice

No 52 trips cancelled now · 3 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 54.9% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (38,425 arrivals over 22 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO ᐊᖁᑎᖓ 52: Des Cèdre/Rivermead/Vanier

ᑐᕌᖓᔪᖅPob Allum1 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

KATIMAVIK/DU PLATEAU5 min sched.
de SÉTO/KATIMAVIK6 min sched.
VANIER/ATTIKAMEKS9 min sched.
MCCONNELL/MORLEY-WALTERS10 min sched.
MCCONNELL/CASTELBEAU10 min sched.
MCCONNELL/JEAN-DE LA FONTAINE11 min sched.
MCCONNELL/des MANOIRS11 min sched.
RIVERMEAD/ÉMILE-ZOLA12 min sched.
RIVERMEAD/JEAN-DE LA FONTAINE13 min sched.
PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD14 min sched.
chemin d'AYLMER/de l'HIPPODROME17 min sched.
chemin d'AYLMER/MORLEY-WALTERS18 min sched.
VANIER/LYNN19 min sched.
VANIER/CRESCENT19 min sched.
VANIER/des VÉTÉRANS20 min sched.
VANIER/CRESCENT20 min sched.
VANIER/CALVADOS21 min sched.
VANIER/de LUCERNE21 min sched.
CÔTÉ/LUCERNE22 min sched.
CÔTÉ/DESCHÊNES22 min sched.
CÔTÉ/LAMOUREUX23 min sched.
LAMOUREUX/VANIER23 min sched.
VANIER/MADAIRE24 min sched.
VANIER/SAINT-MÉDARD24 min sched.
de LUCERNE/GARDEN25 min sched.
de LUCERNE/VICTOR-BEAUDRY26 min sched.
de LUCERNE/FRASER27 min sched.
de LUCERNE/EASTERN28 min sched.
de LUCERNE/RIESLING29 min sched.
de LUCERNE/ÉLIZABETH31 min sched.
FRANK-ROBINSON/CENTRE WESTERN QUÉBEC31 min sched.
FRANK-ROBINSON/DU PATRIMOINE33 min sched.
PRINCIPALE/WILFRID-LAVIGNE33 min sched.
chemin d'AYLMER/du BORDEAUX34 min sched.
de la COLLINE/chemin d'AYLMER35 min sched.
de la COLLINE/des EXPLORATEURS35 min sched.
de la COLLINE/du VALLON36 min sched.
du VALLON/des DRAVEURS37 min sched.
du VALLON/du CAVEAU38 min sched.
du CAVEAU/SAMUEL-EDEY38 min sched.
SAMUEL-EDEY/des PAYSANS39 min sched.
SAMUEL-EDEY/MCCONNELL40 min sched.
des ALLUMETTIÈRES/SAMUEL-EDEY40 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/des ALLUMETTIÈRES42 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/des PINACÉES43 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/du BOIS-FRANC44 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/des THUYAS44 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/MAURICE-DUPLESSIS45 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/LYSE-DANIELS46 min sched.
WILFRID-LAVIGNE/KLOCK46 min sched.
du RATON-LAVEUR/de la MARMOTTE49 min sched.
du RATON-LAVEUR/du LOUP-GRIS50 min sched.
du RATON-LAVEUR/FRONT51 min sched.
FRONT/du RENARD51 min sched.
FRONT/du MARCHÉ52 min sched.
FRONT/du VERGER52 min sched.
FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES53 min sched.
des ALLUMETTIÈRES/FRONT53 min sched.
PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES arrêt d'arrivée56 min sched.

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 1 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 2.

Trips needing investigation

4 of 218 trips with a usable feed window (1.8%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

214 with position · 4 to investigate · 34 excluded · 252 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 1:46 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 8 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

34 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 214 / 252 (84.9%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 1:08 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

54.9%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 38,425
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

05100% · 41 predictions · 6 days
0668% · 951 predictions · 10 days
0756% · 850 predictions · 9 days
0854% · 920 predictions · 10 days
0954% · 1,055 predictions · 11 days
1065% · 1,147 predictions · 11 days
1151% · 1,224 predictions · 12 days
1254% · 1,294 predictions · 12 days
1362% · 1,345 predictions · 12 days
1457% · 1,209 predictions · 13 days
1552% · 1,249 predictions · 12 days
1646% · 1,109 predictions · 12 days
1747% · 1,117 predictions · 12 days
1846% · 1,079 predictions · 11 days
1945% · 1,205 predictions · 11 days
2043% · 1,076 predictions · 10 days
2165% · 1,126 predictions · 10 days
2280% · 1,183 predictions · 10 days
2372% · 1,069 predictions · 10 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

19 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Too few buses were measured to judge bunching: 0 pairs checked, 30 needed.

ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᒻᒪᖔᑦ →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES to FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES, 5.1 km/h actual against 16.7 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
ᐱᒋᐊᕐᕕᒃ	ᑐᕌᕐᕕᒃ	ᐅᖓᓯᒋᓂᖓ	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES	FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	830 m	16.7 km/h	5.1 km/h	223	76%
KATIMAVIK/DU PLATEAU	VANIER/ATTIKAMEKS	970 m	13.5 km/h	7.9 km/h	194	49%
de LUCERNE/FRASER	VANIER/SAINT-MÉDARD	2.2 km	22.9 km/h	12.1 km/h	298	76%
PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	chemin d'AYLMER/MORLEY-WALTERS	790 m	11.8 km/h	14.8 km/h	281	2%
MCCONNELL/MORLEY-WALTERS	VANIER/de SETO	990 m	16.2 km/h	16.2 km/h	288	7%
FRONT/des ALLUMETTIÈRES	PARC-O-BUS ALLUMETTIÈRES arrêt d'arrivée	830 m	15.6 km/h	16.5 km/h	299	2%
chemin d'AYLMER/MORLEY-WALTERS	de LUCERNE/FRASER	4.6 km	30.4 km/h	17.3 km/h	282	66%
PARC-O-BUS RIVERMEAD	MCCONNELL/MORLEY-WALTERS	1.7 km	16.7 km/h	18.8 km/h	278	3%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᒻᒪᖔᑦ →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

6 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 2 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 4 p.m. (2), 6 p.m. (2), 9 a.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Fri, Oct 30, scheduled 20:00
Tue, Oct 27, scheduled 18:00
Fri, Oct 23, scheduled 16:59
Tue, Oct 20, scheduled 18:00
Tue, Oct 20, scheduled 09:00

A cause is shown only when STO’s own alert for that trip gives one.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 3 of 218 trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓰᑦ	ᓈᑦᓰᓈᕐᕕᒃᑯᑦ	ᓈᑦᑏᖑᔭᕐᓂ
Before 6 am	Usually seats0% of 58 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats0% of 236 trips	Usually seats0% of 51 trips	Usually seats0% of 48 trips
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats0% of 474 trips	Usually seats0% of 102 trips	Usually seats0% of 101 trips
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats1.3% of 226 trips	Usually seats0% of 61 trips	Usually seats0% of 67 trips
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats0.6% of 361 trips	Usually seats0% of 75 trips	Usually seats0% of 65 trips
After 10 pm	Usually seats0% of 126 trips	Usually seats2.2% of 46 trips	Usually seats0% of 34 trips

Based on 56 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.9 to 5.1 min later than the timetable in 13 hours of the day.

The prediction difference from the timetable grows by about 3.7 min along the route.

Wide prediction spread 08:00 to 11:00, 15:00 to 18:00: the 95th percentile is 26.6 min later than the median.

Scenario: 4 to 5 min more running time on 198 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.

Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 20 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 41 predictions, typically 0.2 min early
06:00: 67.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 951 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
07:00: 56% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 850 predictions, typically 4 min late
08:00: 54.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 920 predictions, typically 3.2 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
09:00: 54.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,055 predictions, typically 3.9 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
10:00: 64.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,147 predictions, typically 2 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
11:00: 51.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,224 predictions, typically 4.8 min late
12:00: 53.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,294 predictions, typically 4.3 min late
13:00: 61.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,345 predictions, typically 3.2 min late
14:00: 56.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,209 predictions, typically 4 min late
15:00: 51.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,249 predictions, typically 4.7 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
16:00: 45.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,109 predictions, typically 5.8 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
17:00: 46.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,117 predictions, typically 6.7 min late. Provider predictions have a wide spread.
18:00: 45.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,079 predictions, typically 5.9 min late
19:00: 45.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,205 predictions, typically 5.3 min late
20:00: 43.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,076 predictions, typically 5.5 min late
21:00: 64.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,126 predictions, typically 2.9 min late
22:00: 79.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,183 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
23:00: 72.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,069 predictions, typically 2.8 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data
prediction spread of 20 min or more between the 95th percentile and median

Findings
What	ᖃᖓ	ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	07:00 to 10:00 · 11:00 to 21:00	3.9 min late · 5.1 min late	More running time
ProblemWide prediction spread	08:00 to 11:00 · 15:00 to 18:00	22.8 min swing · 26.6 min swing	Operations, not the timetable

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 11:00 to 21:00: Measured arrivals 11,907; Hours affected 10; Spread 16 min; Median delay 5.1 min; Suggested running time change 5.1 min
Wide prediction spread · 15:00 to 18:00: Measured arrivals 3,475; Hours affected 3; Spread 26.6 min; Median delay 5.8 min; Suggested running time change 5.8 min
Predictions later than timetable · 07:00 to 10:00: Measured arrivals 2,825; Hours affected 3; Spread 22.8 min; Median delay 3.9 min; Suggested running time change 3.9 min
Wide prediction spread · 08:00 to 11:00: Measured arrivals 3,122; Hours affected 3; Spread 22.8 min; Median delay 3.2 min; Suggested running time change 3.2 min

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 52 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were often far from the timetable in this dated sample.

55 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 38,425 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 38,425 eligible provider predictions over 22 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 1:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

20–21: 57 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,076 predictions over 10 days).
19–20: 55 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,205 predictions over 11 days).
16–17: 54 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,109 predictions over 12 days).
18–19: 54 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,079 predictions over 11 days).

2 current notices affect this route

• Detour Route 52 South
• Detour Route 52 North

Prediction differences by stop

de la COLLINE/des EXPLORATEURS
84 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (344 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop
de LUCERNE/EASTERN
83 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (346 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop
de LUCERNE/RIESLING
83 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (349 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop
de la COLLINE/du VALLON
81 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (349 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 8Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 4 of 218 checked trips need a closer look4 of 218 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 34 of 252 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 20.9 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)55 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

ᐊᐅᓪᓚᖅᑕᕐᕕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᓂᖅ

ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖏᑦ ᐅᓪᓗᖏᑦ: ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᓂᓗ

ᐅᓇ ᒫᓐᓇ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᓇᓪᓕᐅᓇᐃᓪᓗᒍ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒧᑦ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᑦ. ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᓚᐅᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᖏᑦᑐᑦ.

Current published schedule began November 2, 2026

ᐅᓪᓗᖅ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓂᓪᓗ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᑦ

ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕈᑦᑕᖅᐳᒍᑦ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᓇᒡᒐᔾᔭᐅ ᓄᑖᑦ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᐊᒻᒪ ᓇᒡᒐᔾᔭᐅ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᓂᑦ ᒐᕙᒪᐅᑉ GTFS ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᖏᓐᓂᑦ. ᐊᑎᖏᑦ ᐊᑖᓂ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᑦ.

ᐅᓪᓗᑦ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᓯᒪᔭᑎᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᐅᓇ ᖁᕕᐊᓱᐊᕐᕕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖃᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕐᕕᐅᔪᓂ ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᐅᒃᓱᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ: October 26, 2026

ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ: 0
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓄᖃᖅᑕᕝᕕᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ: 0
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᖁᑎᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 0
ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖏᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: —–—

ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒋᐊᕈᑎᖓ: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

ᓄᑖᖅ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ: November 2, 2026

ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ: 36
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓄᖃᖅᑕᕝᕕᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ: 122
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᖁᑎᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 2
ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖏᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 05:53–23:45

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒋᐊᕈᑎᖓ: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᐅᓯᕚᓕᓚᐅᖅᐸᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ?

ᑎᑭᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᐊᖅᐸᕗᑦ. 14 ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᖓᑕ ᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂᓗ. ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᓂᐊᖅᐳᒍᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᓕᕋᐃᒐᒃ ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕐᕕᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐅᓪᓗᓂᒃ 7 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ, ᑎᑭᓐᓂᕐᓂᓪᓗ 200 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ.

Still collecting: before has 21,400 arrivals over 13 days; after has 2,624 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 54.9%
Eligible predictions checked: 38,425
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 20.9 min late

Patterns by hour (20)

Patterns by hour (20)
ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ	ᐱᕕᒃᓴᖓᓂ	Median	95th percentile	ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᑦ
00:00	35.0%	6.8 min late	19 min late	60 · 2 days
05:00	100.0%	0.2 min early	3.2 min late	41 · 6 days
06:00	67.9%	2.7 min late	12.7 min late	951 · 10 days
07:00	56.0%	4 min late	20.8 min late	850 · 9 days
08:00	54.1%	3.2 min late	36.4 min late	920 · 10 days
09:00	54.2%	3.9 min late	26.7 min late	1,055 · 11 days
10:00	64.5%	2 min late	24.3 min late	1,147 · 11 days
11:00	51.4%	4.8 min late	20.9 min late	1,224 · 12 days
12:00	53.7%	4.3 min late	17.5 min late	1,294 · 12 days
13:00	61.8%	3.2 min late	16.8 min late	1,345 · 12 days
14:00	56.9%	4 min late	20.3 min late	1,209 · 13 days
15:00	51.7%	4.7 min late	27.3 min late	1,249 · 12 days
16:00	45.7%	5.8 min late	33.8 min late	1,109 · 12 days
17:00	46.9%	6.7 min late	33.3 min late	1,117 · 12 days
18:00	45.8%	5.9 min late	21.9 min late	1,079 · 11 days
19:00	45.4%	5.3 min late	18.5 min late	1,205 · 11 days
20:00	43.4%	5.5 min late	16.5 min late	1,076 · 10 days
21:00	64.9%	2.9 min late	14.8 min late	1,126 · 10 days
22:00	79.5%	1.8 min late	16.3 min late	1,183 · 10 days
23:00	72.1%	2.8 min late	12 min late	1,069 · 10 days

16 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

214 / 252 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (84.9%).

23:004 / 9 trips without a position55.6%
05:002 / 5 trips without a position60.0%
20:005 / 14 trips without a position64.3%
21:004 / 14 trips without a position71.4%
22:004 / 14 trips without a position71.4%
19:005 / 19 trips without a position73.7%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 36 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 30 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 6 with an unknown outcome.

05:53– 06:40
Trip sto:63294804Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:00– 06:45
Trip sto:63296198Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:50– 07:41
Trip sto:63295042Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:00– 07:49
Trip sto:63296200Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:55– 08:49
Trip sto:63294583Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:03– 08:51
Trip sto:63296199Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:53– 09:43
Trip sto:63296167Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:23 a.m. EST / 9:56 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:00– 09:48
Trip sto:63294608Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:23 a.m. EST / 10:07 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:53– 10:42
Trip sto:63295911Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:51 a.m. EST / 10:51 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:01– 10:50
Trip sto:63295255Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:01 a.m. EST / 10:51 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:54– 11:43
Trip sto:63294609Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:52 a.m. EST / 11:56 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
11:00– 11:49
Trip sto:63295174Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:52 a.m. EST / 11:52 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

ᑐᕌᕝᑦ

ᑖᓐᓇ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑐᕌᕝᑦᐅᕗᖅ.

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This page is a machine draft in Inuktitut (ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ), the language of the Inuit. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en inuktitut (ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ), la langue des Inuits. Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).