4 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 70.4% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (84,254 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

ᐊᖁᑦ 31: Tenth Line ⇄ Place d'Orléans

29 ᐊᒻᒪ 30 ᒥᓂᑦ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓂ ᐊᑐᓂ

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 14 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 15.

Trips needing investigation

2 of 446 trips with a usable feed window (0.4%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

444 with position · 2 to investigate · 0 excluded · 446 scheduled trips

Current feed. 4 distinct trips on this route are explicitly marked cancelled or deleted in the current feed. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 3:22 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 5 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 444 / 446 (99.6%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 2:18 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

70.4%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 84,254
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: Oct 5, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0693% · 1,242 predictions · 12 days
0773% · 2,882 predictions · 14 days
0889% · 2,989 predictions · 14 days
0983% · 2,595 predictions · 14 days
1081% · 2,772 predictions · 14 days
1171% · 2,744 predictions · 14 days
1277% · 2,779 predictions · 14 days
1368% · 2,785 predictions · 14 days
1467% · 2,331 predictions · 14 days
1576% · 2,740 predictions · 14 days
1660% · 2,266 predictions · 14 days
1758% · 2,841 predictions · 14 days
1859% · 2,753 predictions · 14 days
1959% · 2,738 predictions · 14 days
2070% · 2,653 predictions · 14 days
2172% · 2,650 predictions · 14 days
2271% · 1,668 predictions · 14 days
2395% · 394 predictions · 14 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

18 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 25 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

1% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 372 of 61,692 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

0% of pairs (209) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
ᐅᓪᓗᒥ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	7,447	3% (258)	1% (86)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	24,751	0% (3)	0% (0)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	10,460	1% (81)	1% (94)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	17,120	0% (30)	0% (9)
Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)	1,914	0% (0)	1% (20)

ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᒻᒪᖔᑦ →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: INNES / AD. 3927 to MEADOWGLEN / ORLÉANS, 18.4 km/h actual against 19.8 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
ᐱᒋᐊᕐᕕᒃ	ᑐᕌᕐᕕᒃ	ᐅᖓᓯᒋᓂᖓ	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
INNES / AD. 3927	MEADOWGLEN / ORLÉANS	2.6 km	19.8 km/h	18.4 km/h	31	0%
VANTAGE / AD. 303	MEADOWGLEN / ORLÉANS	4.4 km	30.7 km/h	22.8 km/h	749	25%
JEANNE D'ARC / BILBERRY	JEANNE D'ARC 3A	2.1 km	18.1 km/h	22.8 km/h	21	5%
PLACE D'ORLÉANS E	JEANNE D'ARC 3A	3.8 km	20.3 km/h	23.1 km/h	690	0%
JEANNE D'ARC 3A	FORESTVALLEY / AD. 1402	2 km	25.7 km/h	24.7 km/h	752	12%
FOREST VALLEY / AD. 1401	JEANNE D'ARC 4B	2 km	18.4 km/h	25.3 km/h	784	0%
MEADOWGLEN / ORLÉANS	FOREST VALLEY / AD. 1401	2.3 km	23.5 km/h	26.9 km/h	783	0%
FORESTVALLEY / AD. 1402	MEADOWGLEN / ORLÉANS	2.3 km	25.6 km/h	27.2 km/h	753	1%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᒻᒪᖔᑦ →

ᓄᓇᓕᐅᑉ ᐊᖅᑯᑎᓂᒃ ᐱᓕᕆᓂᖓ ᐅᓇ ᐊᖅᑯᑎ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ

ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓇᓕᖓᑕ ᑐᓴᖅᑎᑦᑎᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᖁᑏᑦ ᓴᓇᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᒪᑐᑦᑕᐅᔪᓪᓗ ᑲᑐᔾᔨᖃᑎᒌᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ, ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᐊᖁᑎᐅᑉ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ. ᖃᓂᒋᔭᐅᓂᖓ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑎᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐸᔅ ᐊᓯᐊᒍᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖓᓂᒃ. ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᖃᐅᔨᔪᒪᒍᕕᑦ, ᐊᐅᓚᑦᑎᔨᐅᑉ ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᖏᑦ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᒋᑦ.

ᓄᓇᓕᐅᑉ ᐊᖁᑎᓂ ᓴᓇᓂᖏᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕋᔅᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᒫᓐᓇ.

A route counts as near when its timetable path passes within 40 m of the City’s mapped closure; a stop counts when it is within 75 m.

ᐱᕝᕕᖓ: ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓇᓕᐊ, ᐊᖅᑯᑎᓂ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᒪᑐᓯᒪᔪᓪᓗ. ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ Open Government Licence ᑯᑦ, ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓇᓕᐊ. ᓄᓇᓕᐊ ᐅᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᐹᒥ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ. ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᙱᓐᓇᔭᖅᑐᑦ. ᐋᑐᕚ ᓄᓈᓖᑦ ᐊᖅᑯᑏᑦ ᓄᓇᙳᐊᖓ ↗

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

1 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 30 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 6 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Fri, Oct 30, scheduled 18:06

OC Transpo gives no reason for single trips, so none is shown.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 446 trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.1 to 3.3 min later than the timetable in 9 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 3 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 18 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 93.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,242 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
07:00: 72.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,882 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
08:00: 89% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,989 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
09:00: 82.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,595 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
10:00: 81% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,772 predictions, typically 2 min late
11:00: 71.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,744 predictions, typically 2.4 min late
12:00: 76.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,779 predictions, typically 2.6 min late
13:00: 67.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,785 predictions, typically 3.2 min late
14:00: 66.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,331 predictions, typically 3.1 min late
15:00: 76.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,740 predictions, typically 2.2 min late
16:00: 59.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,266 predictions, typically 4.1 min late
17:00: 57.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,841 predictions, typically 3.7 min late
18:00: 58.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,753 predictions, typically 3.1 min late
19:00: 58.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,738 predictions, typically 3.8 min late
20:00: 69.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,653 predictions, typically 3.1 min late
21:00: 71.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,650 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
22:00: 70.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,668 predictions, typically 3.3 min late
23:00: 94.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 394 predictions, typically 1.5 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	ᖃᖓ	ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	13:00 to 15:00 · 16:00 to 23:00	3.1 min late · 3.3 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
StrengthObserved-position lower bound	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 16:00 to 23:00: Measured arrivals 17,569; Hours affected 7; Spread 7.7 min; Median delay 3.3 min; Suggested running time change 3.3 min
Predictions later than timetable · 13:00 to 15:00: Measured arrivals 5,116; Hours affected 2; Spread 8.3 min; Median delay 3.1 min; Suggested running time change 3.1 min
Observed-position lower bound · All measured hours: ᑐᕌᒐᖅ 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.6%; ᐅᓪᓗᑦ ᐸᓯᑦ ᐊᐅᓚᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ 6; Trips with a matching position 444; ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ 446

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 31 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.

70 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 84,254 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 84,254 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 2:41 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

17–18: 42 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,841 predictions over 14 days).
18–19: 41 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,753 predictions over 14 days).
19–20: 41 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,738 predictions over 14 days).
16–17: 41 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,266 predictions over 14 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

MEADOWGLEN / MONTEREAU
68 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (911 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
MEADOWGLEN / WINDFLOWER
66 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (912 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
MEADOWGLEN / WILLOWBARK
66 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (911 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
MEADOWGLEN / MEADOWFIELD
64 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (911 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 5Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 2 of 446 checked trips need a closer look2 of 446 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 446 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 11.3 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)70 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

ᐊᐅᓪᓚᖅᑕᕐᕕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᓂᖅ

ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖏᑦ ᐅᓪᓗᖏᑦ: ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᓂᓗ

ᐅᓇ ᒫᓐᓇ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᓇᓪᓕᐅᓇᐃᓪᓗᒍ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒧᑦ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᑦ. ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᓚᐅᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᖏᑦᑐᑦ.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

ᐅᓪᓗᖅ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓂᓪᓗ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᑦ

ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕈᑦᑕᖅᐳᒍᑦ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᓇᒡᒐᔾᔭᐅ ᓄᑖᑦ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᐊᒻᒪ ᓇᒡᒐᔾᔭᐅ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᓂᑦ ᒐᕙᒪᐅᑉ GTFS ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᖏᓐᓂᑦ. ᐊᑎᖏᑦ ᐊᑖᓂ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᑦ.

ᐅᓪᓗᑦ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᓯᒪᔭᑎᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᐅᓇ ᖁᕕᐊᓱᐊᕐᕕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖃᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕐᕕᐅᔪᓂ ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᐅᒃᓱᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ: October 26, 2026

ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ: 66
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓄᖃᖅᑕᕝᕕᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ: 109
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᖁᑎᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 4
ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖏᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 06:05–23:01

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒋᐊᕈᑎᖓ: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

ᓄᑖᖅ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᕿᒥᕐᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ: November 2, 2026

ᐸᕐᓇᒃᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᐅᔪᑦ: 66
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓄᖃᖅᑕᕝᕕᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥ: 109
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᖁᑎᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 4
ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖏᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 06:05–23:01

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒋᐊᕈᑎᖓ: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕋᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᐅᓯᕚᓕᓚᐅᖅᐸᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ?

ᑎᑭᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᐊᖅᐸᕗᑦ. 14 ᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᓂᖓᑕ ᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂᓗ. ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᓂᐊᖅᐳᒍᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᓕᕋᐃᒐᒃ ᐱᔨᑦᑎᕐᕕᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐅᓪᓗᓂᒃ 7 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ, ᑎᑭᓐᓂᕐᓂᓪᓗ 200 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ.

Still collecting: before has 43,867 arrivals over 14 days; after has 15,658 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 5, 2026 to November 2, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 70.4%
Eligible predictions checked: 84,254
Weekdays with data: 19
95th-percentile predicted delay: 11.3 min late

Patterns by hour (18)

Patterns by hour (18)
ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ	ᐱᕕᒃᓴᖓᓂ	Median	95th percentile	ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᑦ
06:00	93.2%	2.1 min late	5.6 min late	1,242 · 12 days
07:00	72.7%	2.6 min late	9.5 min late	2,882 · 14 days
08:00	89.0%	1.5 min late	6.6 min late	2,989 · 14 days
09:00	82.5%	1.8 min late	8 min late	2,595 · 14 days
10:00	81.0%	2 min late	8.3 min late	2,772 · 14 days
11:00	71.4%	2.4 min late	12.7 min late	2,744 · 14 days
12:00	76.8%	2.6 min late	8.8 min late	2,779 · 14 days
13:00	67.9%	3.2 min late	10.3 min late	2,785 · 14 days
14:00	66.9%	3.1 min late	12.6 min late	2,331 · 14 days
15:00	76.3%	2.2 min late	11 min late	2,740 · 14 days
16:00	59.5%	4.1 min late	11.8 min late	2,266 · 14 days
17:00	57.9%	3.7 min late	14.7 min late	2,841 · 14 days
18:00	58.7%	3.1 min late	11.8 min late	2,753 · 14 days
19:00	58.7%	3.8 min late	12.7 min late	2,738 · 14 days
20:00	69.7%	3.1 min late	10.7 min late	2,653 · 14 days
21:00	71.8%	3.3 min late	11.1 min late	2,650 · 14 days
22:00	70.6%	3.3 min late	10.4 min late	1,668 · 14 days
23:00	94.9%	1.5 min late	5 min late	394 · 14 days

7 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

444 / 446 scheduled trips published at least one position across 6 service days (99.6%).

09:001 / 26 trips without a position96.2%
18:001 / 27 trips without a position96.3%
06:000 / 16 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 35 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 26 trips without a position100.0%
10:000 / 28 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 66 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 66 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

06:05– 06:34
Trip 5822030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:39 a.m. EST / 7:07 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:36– 07:10
Trip 270030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:31 a.m. EST / 7:13 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:41– 07:13
Trip 2982030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:12 a.m. EST / 7:35 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:06– 07:40
Trip 34837030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:01 a.m. EST / 7:44 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:11– 07:43
Trip 27001030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:14 a.m. EST / 7:50 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:36– 08:10
Trip 20862030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:36 a.m. EST / 8:11 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:41– 08:13
Trip 18098030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:45 a.m. EST / 8:27 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:42– 08:13
Trip 819030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:20 a.m. EST / 8:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:47– 08:15
Trip 27644030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:43 a.m. EST / 8:13 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:06– 08:40
Trip 1882030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:08 a.m. EST / 8:41 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:11– 08:46
Trip 22675030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:12 a.m. EST / 9:05 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:36– 09:08
Trip 14696030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:11 a.m. EST / 9:12 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

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ᑖᓐᓇ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑐᕌᕝᑦᐅᕗᖅ.

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This page is a machine draft in Inuktitut (ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ), the language of the Inuit. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en inuktitut (ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ), la langue des Inuits. Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).