Rideau-Jock is the least reliable ward, at 60%. 4 wards sit below 70%.

ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ

The share of buses that reached a stop on time. On time here means from one minute early to five minutes late at timing points, the OC Transpo window. A by-hour table may also show the share within five minutes of the times riders see. That is a different rule, named where it appears and explained there. Cancelled trips and trips that never came count as misses.

• ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅWe saw it happen.
• ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅModelled, shown with a range.
• ExplainedHow it is worked out, in words.

Where it comes from

• ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅOC Transpo and STO live bus positions
• ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅPublished timetables, dated
• ᐅᑦᑐᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅTrip outcomes: ran, cancelled, did not come

How we work it out

1. We find when each bus actually reached each timing point, from where it was on the map.
2. We compare that with the timetable and mark the visit on time, early or late.
3. Trips that were cancelled or never came count as misses. Visits we saw too thinly to judge are left out, not guessed.
4. The on-time share is the judged visits that were on time, divided by all judged visits plus the misses.

Worked example

How sure we are

This is measured, not modelled. It gets less certain when we saw few visits, and the page says how many were judged.

Limits, and what would change it

• It is a share of visits, not of riders: a full peak bus and an empty one count the same.
• Where buses were too far apart in our position data, we say so rather than guess.
• Early counts as a miss because a rider who arrives on time can find the bus already gone. The rider rule on a by-hour table treats early and late alike.