No 77 trips cancelled now · 1 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 94% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (12,763 arrivals over 22 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

STO route 77: Cheval-Blanc

Toward Lorrain1 buses · boards at · under each stop: the next bus (live dot = live, grey = sched.)

STATION LORRAIN28 min sched.
LORRAIN/SAINTE-ROSE29 min sched.
LORRAIN/BEAUCHAMP0 min sched.
LORRAIN/DÉSY1 min sched.
LORRAIN/de CALUMET1 min sched.
MALONEY EST/LORRAIN1 min sched.
MALONEY EST/MITCHELL2 min sched.
MALONEY EST/JOSEPH-ROY2 min sched.
MALONEY EST/JOSEPH-ROY3 min sched.
MALONEY EST/des SABLES3 min sched.
MALONEY EST/PASTEUR4 min sched.
MALONEY EST/PASTEUR5 min sched.
du CHEVAL-BLANC/de MIRABEL5 min sched.
du CHEVAL-BLANC/de la CHÂTEAUGUAY6 min sched.
du CHEVAL-BLANC/des FAUVETTES7 min sched.
du CHEVAL-BLANC/de la FRÉGATE7 min sched.
POB CHEVAL-BLANC8 min sched.
du SOUS-BOIS/du CHEVAL-BLANC9 min sched.
du SOUS-BOIS/de la CLAIRIÈRE9 min sched.
du SOUS-BOIS/MONTÉE DALTON9 min sched.
SAINT-RENÉ EST/MONTÉE DALTON10 min sched.
SAINT-RENÉ EST/LAURE11 min sched.
SAINT-RENÉ EST/BERTHIAUME12 min sched.
SAINT-RENÉ EST/TRAVERSY13 min sched.
SAINT-RENÉ EST/BOYES15 min sched.
STATION LORRAIN arrêt d'arrivée18 min sched.

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

—

No retained notice returned; this does not prove zero cancellations.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 161 trips with a usable feed window (0.6%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

160 with position · 1 to investigate · 31 excluded · 192 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 2:16 p.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 9 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

31 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 160 / 192 (83.3%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 12:49 p.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

94%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 12,763
Weekdays with evidence: 17
Evidence window: Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0587% · 280 predictions · 7 days
0698% · 303 predictions · 7 days
0794% · 290 predictions · 9 days
0899% · 434 predictions · 10 days
0995% · 477 predictions · 11 days
1097% · 426 predictions · 11 days
1197% · 471 predictions · 12 days
1297% · 425 predictions · 11 days
1397% · 388 predictions · 12 days
1497% · 386 predictions · 12 days
1589% · 415 predictions · 12 days
1691% · 391 predictions · 12 days
1787% · 462 predictions · 12 days
1888% · 491 predictions · 11 days
1990% · 251 predictions · 11 days
2094% · 230 predictions · 10 days
2195% · 210 predictions · 10 days
2291% · 246 predictions · 10 days
23100% · 34 predictions · 9 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

6 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

19 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 21 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 12, 2026.

Values and interpretation

0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 4 of 6,934 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

0% of pairs (3) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Tó: nikahwistá:ke	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Early morning (4 to 6 a.m.)	176	0% (0)	0% (0)
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	1,304	0% (0)	0% (0)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	3,397	0% (4)	0% (3)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	1,405	0% (0)	0% (0)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	652	0% (0)	0% (0)

Tsi ní:ioht →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: STATION LORRAIN to LORRAIN/de CALUMET, 5.8 km/h actual against 16.9 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
Tsi nón:we	Tsi nón:we	Tsi niió:re (distance)	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
STATION LORRAIN	LORRAIN/de CALUMET	930 m	16.9 km/h	5.8 km/h	427	66%
SAINT-RENÉ EST/MONTÉE DALTON	STATION LORRAIN arrêt d'arrivée	1.9 km	14.2 km/h	18.6 km/h	415	0%
POB CHEVAL-BLANC	SAINT-RENÉ EST/MONTÉE DALTON	1.1 km	30.4 km/h	19.3 km/h	455	62%
LORRAIN/de CALUMET	POB CHEVAL-BLANC	3.2 km	26 km/h	24.1 km/h	439	1%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

Tsi ní:ioht →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

6 partial-capture days not counted.

No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 1 of 161 trips we could check.

When this route is usually busy

From the load level STO’s buses report, over the last eight weeks. A time is marked usually busy when at least half of the trips with a reading reached standing room or fuller.

No time of day was usually busy in the last eight weeks.

When this route is usually busy	Wísk niwenhniserá:ke	Entákta	Awentatokentì:ke
Before 6 am	Usually seats0% of 67 trips	Not enough readings	Not enough readings
6 to 9 am	Usually seats9.2% of 196 trips	Usually seats0% of 16 trips	Usually seats0% of 14 trips
9 am to 3 pm	Usually seats0% of 418 trips	Usually seats0% of 46 trips	Usually seats0% of 46 trips
3 to 6 pm	Usually seats8.9% of 247 trips	Usually seats0% of 28 trips	Usually seats3.4% of 29 trips
6 to 10 pm	Usually seats1.9% of 208 trips	Usually seats2.7% of 37 trips	Usually seats6.7% of 30 trips
After 10 pm	Usually seats1.6% of 62 trips	Usually seats0% of 12 trips	Not enough readings

Based on 56 computed days.

Source: the occupancy status in STO’s public real-time vehicle feed, which STO sets from each bus’s load sensor (seats available under 60% full, standing room under 90%, full above 90%).
Each trip counts once per time of day, at the highest load it reported.
Reports of an empty bus are left out, because older records could not tell an empty bus from one with no sensor.
A time of day needs at least 12 trips on at least 4 different days before anything is shown. Holidays are counted with their day of the week.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Ka' nikarihò:ten

What this route needs

95% of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable in a typical sampled hour; the lowest sampled hour is 87%.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 19 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: 87.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 280 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
06:00: 97.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 303 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
07:00: 93.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 290 predictions, typically 0.5 min late
08:00: 98.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 434 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
09:00: 95.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 477 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
10:00: 96.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 426 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
11:00: 97.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 471 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
12:00: 97.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 425 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
13:00: 96.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 388 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
14:00: 96.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 386 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
15:00: 89.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 415 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
16:00: 91% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 391 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
17:00: 87.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 462 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
18:00: 88.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 491 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
19:00: 90% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 251 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
20:00: 93.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 230 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
21:00: 95.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 210 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
22:00: 91.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 246 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
23:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 34 predictions, typically 1.1 min late

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Ó:nen	Tewaterièn:tare	Scenario or next investigation
StrengthPredictions consistently close to timetable	05:00 to 00:00	95%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions consistently close to timetable · 05:00 to 00:00: Measured arrivals 6,610; Hours measured 19; Worst hour on time 87.1%; Median hour on time 95.2%

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 77 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were usually close to schedule in this dated sample.

94 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 12,763 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 12,763 eligible provider predictions over 22 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 1:32 p.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

No repeated prediction-difference period has cleared the evidence threshold yet.

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

STATION LORRAIN
55 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (538 predictions over 24 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 9Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 1 of 161 checked trips need a closer look1 of 161 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 31 of 192 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 4.6 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)94 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned. They do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began November 2, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check ne first Monday after ne á:se schedule began, tánon ne Monday one week earlier. Akwé:kon figures, official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Ohén:ton

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: October 26, 2026

Schedule trips: 0
Distinct scheduled stops: 0
Distinct published paths: 0
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: —–—

Kahiatónhsera: 7692f9a7012f44e6 · 68840ddf-afaa-4cf4-9656-22afc030f92f

New schedule

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: November 2, 2026

Schedule trips: 32
Distinct scheduled stops: 26
Distinct published paths: 1
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 05:20–23:06

Operator calendar-date records: 1 added · 0 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 540f8e4e98d50320 · 7a8023af-fdc6-4276-bed6-2e3d7bd7bb74

Did service improve after the change?

Enkwatkáhtho' ne arrivals 14 wenhniserá:tens tsi niió:re aorí:wa ne change tánon' ohnà:ken. Ne tsi enkwatkáhtho' entewahró:ri' tsi nikarì:wes ne 7 wenhniserá:tens tánon' 200 arrivals iá:ken'.

Still collecting: before has 6,950 arrivals over 13 days; after has 1,001 arrivals over 2 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 94.0%
Eligible predictions checked: 12,763
Weekdays with data: 17
95th-percentile predicted delay: 4.6 min late

Patterns by hour (19)

Patterns by hour (19)
Hour	Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes	Median	95th percentile	Tsi tó:kenske
05:00	87.1%	0.8 min late	7.2 min late	280 · 7 days
06:00	97.7%	0.9 min late	2.7 min late	303 · 7 days
07:00	93.8%	0.5 min late	5.2 min late	290 · 9 days
08:00	98.6%	1.4 min late	3.4 min late	434 · 10 days
09:00	95.4%	1.8 min late	3.9 min late	477 · 11 days
10:00	96.7%	0.4 min late	2.5 min late	426 · 11 days
11:00	97.2%	0.4 min late	2.8 min late	471 · 12 days
12:00	97.4%	0.6 min late	3.3 min late	425 · 11 days
13:00	96.6%	0.8 min late	4.4 min late	388 · 12 days
14:00	96.6%	0.6 min late	3.8 min late	386 · 12 days
15:00	89.4%	1.7 min late	6 min late	415 · 12 days
16:00	91.0%	1.9 min late	5.6 min late	391 · 12 days
17:00	87.2%	1.7 min late	6 min late	462 · 12 days
18:00	88.2%	1.8 min late	5.4 min late	491 · 11 days
19:00	90.0%	1.2 min late	5.6 min late	251 · 11 days
20:00	93.5%	0.8 min late	4.9 min late	230 · 10 days
21:00	95.2%	1.2 min late	3.5 min late	210 · 10 days
22:00	91.1%	0.8 min late	5.3 min late	246 · 10 days
23:00	100.0%	1.1 min late	3.8 min late	34 · 9 days

No repeated pattern below 70% is yet established across at least three service days.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

160 / 192 scheduled trips published at least one position across 5 service days (83.3%).

20:003 / 7 trips without a position57.1%
21:003 / 7 trips without a position57.1%
06:004 / 10 trips without a position60.0%
07:004 / 12 trips without a position66.7%
19:002 / 7 trips without a position71.4%
22:002 / 7 trips without a position71.4%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 32 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 22 with a matched position · 1 with no matching position (to investigate) · 9 with an unknown outcome.

05:20– 05:42
Trip sto:63295961Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
05:49– 06:11
Trip sto:63295679Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:19– 06:41
Trip sto:63295935Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
06:49– 07:11
Trip sto:63294919Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:19– 07:41
Trip sto:63295936Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
07:53– 08:15
Trip sto:63295960Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:19– 08:41
Trip sto:63295526Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
08:46– 09:06
Trip sto:63295937Insufficient coverage or identity; outcome unknown
09:16– 09:36
Trip sto:63295996Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:22 a.m. EST / 9:33 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
09:46– 10:06
Trip sto:63295938Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 9:46 a.m. EST / 10:03 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:16– 10:36
Trip sto:63295997Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:04 a.m. EST / 10:33 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
10:46– 11:06
Trip sto:63295939Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 10:34 a.m. EST / 11:01 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

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This page is a machine draft in Mohawk (Kanien’kéha), the language of the Kanien’kehá:ka (Mohawk) communities. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en mohawk (kanien’kéha), la langue des communautés kanien’kehá:ka (mohawks). Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).