Scheduled service and available evidence
Evidence period: Oct 29, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026
0
Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 2 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 2.
0
0 of 84 trips with a usable feed window (0%) had no matching position.
These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.
84 with position · 0 to investigate · 0 excluded · 84 scheduled trips
Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 5, 2026, 3:26 a.m..
0 of 4 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.
0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.
Published position coverage: 84 / 84 (100%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.
Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.
Historical calculation: Nov 5, 2026, 2:09 a.m.
Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.
Predictions against the timetable
85.2%
of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.
Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.
These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.
Calculated: Nov 5, 2026
2 partial-capture days not counted.
12 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.
Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.
Last 28 days, October 8, 2026 to November 4, 2026: 25 days counted.
2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.
No bunched buses were measured on this route in the last 28 days (3,670 pairs checked at stops).
0% of pairs (0) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.
| Tó: nikahwistá:ke | Pairs checked | Bunched | Long gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.) | 1,148 | 0% (0) | 0% (0) |
| Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.) | 2,066 | 0% (0) | 0% (0) |
| Evening (6 to 10 p.m.) | 456 | 0% (0) | 0% (0) |
Slowest: ST-LAURENT A to WALKLEY / LANCASTER, 21.5 km/h actual against 23.4 km/h planned.
| Tsi nón:we | Tsi nón:we | Tsi niió:re (distance) | Planned speed | Actual speed | Trips measured | Slow trips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST-LAURENT A | WALKLEY / LANCASTER | 4.9 km | 23.4 km/h | 21.5 km/h | 131 | 2% |
| RUSSELL / HYDRO | WALKLEY / LANCASTER | 5.9 km | 25.4 km/h | 26.9 km/h | 133 | 0% |
A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.
2 partial-capture days not counted.
No counted cancellations on this route in the last four weeks. Notices we could not check would be listed below.
Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.
Ka' nikarihò:ten
Median provider predictions are 3.5 min later than the timetable in 3 hours of the day.
Predictions near the start are about 2.2 min later than the timetable; the difference grows by another 2.9 min along the route.
Provider predictions are about 1.1 min earlier than the timetable, 12:00.
07:00 has 68% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 93% the rest of the day.
Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.
Scenario: 4 min more running time on 60 trips. The schedule-block model adds no buses; fleet and workforce feasibility are unverified.
Assumptions: published departure times, trip blocks and service pattern stay fixed while running time changes. A scheduler must test headways, transfers, recovery, fleet circulation, operator shifts, labour rules and cost before use.
| What | Ó:nen | Tewaterièn:tare | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable | 06:00 to 09:00 | 3.5 min late | More running time |
| ProblemPredictions earlier than timetable | 12:00 | 1.1 min early | Less running time, or holding points |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match | 07:00 | 68% | Operations, not the timetable |
| StrengthObserved-position lower bound | All measured hours | 100% | Keep what works |
Route check
A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.
Bottom line
Provider predictions were usually close to schedule, but check the problem times below.
85 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 11,856 predictions checkedPrediction sample size: Larger sample
Based on 11,856 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.
Updated Nov 5, 2026, 2:32 a.m.
These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.
No current official notice matches this route.
Prediction differences by stop
49 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (162 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop49 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (162 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop47 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (162 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop47 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (162 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stopThese are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.
Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.
Schedule change check
This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned. They do not prove that a trip ran.
Current published schedule began October 30, 2026
We check ne first Monday after ne á:se schedule began, tánon ne Monday one week earlier. Akwé:kon figures, official GTFS versions named below.
At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.
Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: October 26, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed
Kahiatónhsera: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad
Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: November 2, 2026
Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed
Kahiatónhsera: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945
Enkwatkáhtho' ne arrivals 14 wenhniserá:tens tsi niió:re aorí:wa ne change tánon' ohnà:ken. Ne tsi enkwatkáhtho' entewahró:ri' tsi nikarì:wes ne 7 wenhniserá:tens tánon' 200 arrivals iá:ken'.
Still collecting: before has 6,569 arrivals over 14 days; after has 2,718 arrivals over 6 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.
Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.
We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.
The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.
Provisional results, published evidence
Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.
Evidence window: October 6, 2026 to November 3, 2026
| Hour | Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes | Median | 95th percentile | Tsi tó:kenske |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 93.7% | 1 min late | 7.2 min late | 174 · 14 days |
| 01:00 | 92.5% | 0.4 min late | 6.1 min late | 372 · 14 days |
| 05:00 | 100.0% | 1.3 min late | 3.2 min late | 264 · 11 days |
| 06:00 | 67.7% | 4.1 min late | 10.4 min late | 784 · 11 days |
| 07:00 | 67.5% | 3 min late | 10.4 min late | 1,058 · 11 days |
| 08:00 | 71.8% | 3.5 min late | 13 min late | 819 · 11 days |
| 11:00 | 100.0% | 0.5 min early | 2.7 min late | 123 · 15 days |
| 12:00 | 96.8% | 1.1 min early | 0.9 min late | 493 · 15 days |
| 15:00 | 92.9% | 0.3 min late | 6.5 min late | 831 · 11 days |
| 16:00 | 87.7% | 0.8 min late | 5.8 min late | 932 · 11 days |
| 17:00 | 96.7% | 0.5 min late | 4 min late | 996 · 11 days |
| 18:00 | 97.9% | 0.9 min late | 3.2 min late | 341 · 11 days |
2 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.
84 / 84 scheduled trips published at least one position across 7 service days (100.0%).
This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.
Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.
Dated service
The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.
November 4, 2026 · 16 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified
In short: 16 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.