No 38 trips cancelled now · 0 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 91% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (53,740 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

Oháha 38: Blair ⇄ Trim

Every 28 to 32 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 9 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 10.

Trips needing investigation

1 of 465 trips with a usable feed window (0.2%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

464 with position · 1 to investigate · 0 excluded · 465 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 2:32 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 4 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 464 / 465 (99.8%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 1:38 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

91%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 53,740
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: Oct 5, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0491% · 330 predictions · 11 days
0591% · 264 predictions · 11 days
0692% · 1,022 predictions · 13 days
0797% · 1,314 predictions · 14 days
0889% · 1,776 predictions · 14 days
0988% · 1,614 predictions · 14 days
1095% · 1,754 predictions · 14 days
1195% · 1,765 predictions · 14 days
1287% · 1,753 predictions · 14 days
1393% · 1,734 predictions · 14 days
1491% · 1,824 predictions · 14 days
1590% · 1,553 predictions · 14 days
1690% · 1,658 predictions · 14 days
1785% · 1,684 predictions · 14 days
1885% · 1,644 predictions · 14 days
1992% · 1,767 predictions · 14 days
2096% · 1,656 predictions · 14 days
2197% · 1,651 predictions · 14 days
2297% · 1,086 predictions · 14 days
2399% · 533 predictions · 12 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

20 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 25 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 71 of 36,992 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

0% of pairs (93) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Tó: nikahwistá:ke	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	2,662	0% (1)	2% (44)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	14,425	0% (31)	0% (8)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	7,615	1% (39)	1% (41)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	10,221	0% (0)	0% (0)
Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)	2,069	0% (0)	0% (0)

Tsi ní:ioht →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: JEANNE D'ARC 1A to JEANNE D'ARC / MOCKINGBIRD, 18.2 km/h actual against 22.4 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
Tsi nón:we	Tsi nón:we	Tsi niió:re (distance)	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
JEANNE D'ARC 1A	JEANNE D'ARC / MOCKINGBIRD	4.5 km	22.4 km/h	18.2 km/h	95	1%
PLACE D'ORLÉANS B	JEANNE D'ARC / MOCKINGBIRD	1.8 km	21.4 km/h	18.4 km/h	688	7%
JEANNE D'ARC / HARLEQUIN	PLACE D'ORLÉANS E	1.9 km	21.4 km/h	20.4 km/h	713	1%
JEANNE D'ARC / HARLEQUIN	JEANNE D'ARC 2A	4.3 km	21.2 km/h	21.1 km/h	95	2%
JEANNE D'ARC 1A	PLACE D'ORLÉANS B	3.9 km	26.3 km/h	22.8 km/h	676	2%
PLACE D'ORLÉANS E	JEANNE D'ARC 2A	3.7 km	28.1 km/h	22.9 km/h	706	9%
TRIM 2A	JEANNE D'ARC / HARLEQUIN	2.6 km	21.2 km/h	26.9 km/h	804	1%
JEANNE D'ARC 2A	BLAIR C	6.4 km	38 km/h	43 km/h	33	0%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

Tsi ní:ioht →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

4 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 27 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 10 a.m. (1), 2 p.m. (1), 3 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Thu, Oct 29, scheduled 10:55
Mon, Oct 19, scheduled 14:47
Wed, Oct 14, scheduled 15:26
Wed, Oct 7, scheduled 17:45

OC Transpo gives no reason for single trips, so none is shown.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: none of the trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Ka' nikarihò:ten

What this route needs

91% of predictions are within five minutes of the timetable in a typical sampled hour; the lowest sampled hour is 85%.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 21 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: 90.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 330 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
05:00: 91.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 264 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
06:00: 92% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,022 predictions, typically 0.8 min late
07:00: 97.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,314 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
08:00: 88.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,776 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
09:00: 88.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,614 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
10:00: 94.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,754 predictions, typically 1 min late
11:00: 95.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,765 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
12:00: 86.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,753 predictions, typically 1 min late
13:00: 92.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,734 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
14:00: 91.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,824 predictions, typically 0.2 min late
15:00: 90.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,553 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
16:00: 90.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,658 predictions, typically 0.4 min late
17:00: 85.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,684 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
18:00: 85% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,644 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
19:00: 91.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,767 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
20:00: 95.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,656 predictions, typically 0.6 min late
21:00: 96.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,651 predictions, typically 0.2 min early
22:00: 96.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,086 predictions, typically 0.5 min early
23:00: 99.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 533 predictions, typically 0.5 min early

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Ó:nen	Tewaterièn:tare	Scenario or next investigation
StrengthPredictions consistently close to timetable	04:00 to 00:00	91%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions consistently close to timetable · 04:00 to 00:00: Measured arrivals 28,382; Hours measured 20; Worst hour on time 85%; Median hour on time 91.4%

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 38 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions were usually close to schedule in this dated sample.

91 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 53,740 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 53,740 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 1:43 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

No repeated prediction-difference period has cleared the evidence threshold yet.

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

We do not yet have enough route-by-stop history to name a recurring problem stop. Rider reports are used as leads, not proof.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 4Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 1 of 465 checked trips need a closer look1 of 465 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 465 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 6.3 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)91 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned. They do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check ne first Monday after ne á:se schedule began, tánon ne Monday one week earlier. Akwé:kon figures, official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Ohén:ton

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: October 26, 2026

Schedule trips: 70
Distinct scheduled stops: 63
Distinct published paths: 6
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 04:36–23:34

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

New schedule

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: November 2, 2026

Schedule trips: 70
Distinct scheduled stops: 63
Distinct published paths: 6
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 04:36–23:34

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Did service improve after the change?

Enkwatkáhtho' ne arrivals 14 wenhniserá:tens tsi niió:re aorí:wa ne change tánon' ohnà:ken. Ne tsi enkwatkáhtho' entewahró:ri' tsi nikarì:wes ne 7 wenhniserá:tens tánon' 200 arrivals iá:ken'.

Still collecting: before has 28,374 arrivals over 14 days; after has 9,954 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 5, 2026 to November 2, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 91.0%
Eligible predictions checked: 53,740
Weekdays with data: 19
95th-percentile predicted delay: 6.3 min late

Patterns by hour (21)

Patterns by hour (21)
Hour	Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes	Median	95th percentile	Tsi tó:kenske
00:00	83.9%	2 min late	5.3 min late	56 · 2 days
04:00	90.9%	0.9 min late	6.1 min late	330 · 11 days
05:00	91.3%	0.4 min late	17.3 min late	264 · 11 days
06:00	92.0%	0.8 min late	6 min late	1,022 · 13 days
07:00	97.1%	0.6 min late	4.1 min late	1,314 · 14 days
08:00	88.5%	0.9 min late	7.9 min late	1,776 · 14 days
09:00	88.1%	1.3 min late	8.7 min late	1,614 · 14 days
10:00	94.8%	1 min late	5.2 min late	1,754 · 14 days
11:00	95.2%	0.9 min late	5 min late	1,765 · 14 days
12:00	86.7%	1 min late	9.2 min late	1,753 · 14 days
13:00	92.6%	0.7 min late	6.3 min late	1,734 · 14 days
14:00	91.3%	0.2 min late	5.1 min late	1,824 · 14 days
15:00	90.3%	1.6 min late	5.6 min late	1,553 · 14 days
16:00	90.3%	0.4 min late	6.7 min late	1,658 · 14 days
17:00	85.2%	1.5 min late	6.4 min late	1,684 · 14 days
18:00	85.0%	1.7 min late	7.7 min late	1,644 · 14 days
19:00	91.6%	0.6 min late	7.3 min late	1,767 · 14 days
20:00	95.5%	0.6 min late	4.7 min late	1,656 · 14 days
21:00	96.7%	0.2 min early	4 min late	1,651 · 14 days
22:00	96.6%	0.5 min early	3.2 min late	1,086 · 14 days
23:00	99.1%	0.5 min early	2.3 min late	533 · 12 days

No repeated pattern below 70% is yet established across at least three service days.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

464 / 465 scheduled trips published at least one position across 1 service days (99.8%).

10:001 / 28 trips without a position96.4%
04:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
05:000 / 5 trips without a position100.0%
06:000 / 21 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 24 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 31 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 70 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 70 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

04:36– 05:05
Trip 24005030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 4:12 a.m. EST / 5:25 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
05:45– 06:11
Trip 17021030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:20 a.m. EST / 6:06 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:00– 06:33
Trip 13184030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:18 a.m. EST / 6:44 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:15– 06:43
Trip 33031030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:53 a.m. EST / 6:50 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:43– 07:11
Trip 5955030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:45 a.m. EST / 7:12 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:45– 07:20
Trip 20881030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:43 a.m. EST / 7:42 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:15– 07:47
Trip 32920030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:53 a.m. EST / 7:46 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:16– 07:51
Trip 13899030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:56 a.m. EST / 8:02 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:43– 08:17
Trip 20543030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:43 a.m. EST / 8:16 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:45– 08:20
Trip 13850030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:40 a.m. EST / 8:55 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:03– 08:21
Trip 3360030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:03 a.m. EST / 8:19 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:15– 08:44
Trip 16264030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:12 a.m. EST / 10:28 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

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Cette page est une ébauche automatique en mohawk (kanien’kéha), la langue des communautés kanien’kehá:ka (mohawks). Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).