No 163 trips cancelled now · 2 did not run in NovemberCancellations →

Previous measure: 77.6% of arrivals were within five minutes of the timetable (57,205 arrivals over 27 days). The report card below uses the newer one-minute-early to five-minutes-late measure when it has readings.

Oháha 163: Terry Fox ⇄ Kittiwake

Every 30 to 32 min

Scheduled service and available evidence

Did the scheduled service run?

Open dated evidence

Evidence period: Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026

Scheduled trips with cancellation notices

Trips in the published timetable marked cancelled without qualifying later matching vehicle observations in our archive. This does not prove the trip did not operate. Not counted: 4 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations. Trips with any notice: 5.

Trips needing investigation

2 of 409 trips with a usable feed window (0.5%) had no matching position.

These counts may overlap; do not add them. A missing position confirms neither cancellation nor a no-show.

407 with position · 2 to investigate · 0 excluded · 409 scheduled trips

Current feed. No explicit notice for this route in the current feed; this does not guarantee service. Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 2:35 a.m..

Coverage, exclusions and sources

0 of 4 endpoint departures scheduled in the next four hours carried an explicit cancellation at the last check.

0 scheduled trips were excluded from the position check for feed or identity gaps.

Published position coverage: 407 / 409 (99.5%). This is not a delivered-service rate. 7 service days in this source.

Timetables retained before the service day: 7 / 7 requested days · 0 missing days.

Historical calculation: Nov 4, 2026, 1:09 a.m.

Method: explicit provider notices, archived trip windows and retained timetables. Predictions and positions alone do not prove that a bus ran or was missed.

What does the evidence show?

Predictions against the timetable

77.6%

of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable.

Predictions in the source: 57,205
Weekdays with evidence: 19
Evidence window: Oct 5, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026

The hours we have evidence for

0691% · 1,435 predictions · 13 days
0773% · 1,777 predictions · 14 days
0879% · 1,908 predictions · 14 days
0982% · 2,149 predictions · 14 days
1081% · 2,070 predictions · 14 days
1178% · 2,032 predictions · 14 days
1280% · 2,071 predictions · 14 days
1376% · 2,032 predictions · 14 days
1460% · 2,035 predictions · 14 days
1570% · 2,006 predictions · 14 days
1673% · 2,019 predictions · 14 days
1767% · 1,854 predictions · 14 days
1882% · 1,798 predictions · 14 days
1986% · 1,792 predictions · 14 days
2080% · 1,273 predictions · 12 days
2196% · 897 predictions · 12 days
2290% · 791 predictions · 12 days
23100% · 40 predictions · 8 days

Share of predictions within five minutes of the timetable. Only eligible hours are shown; an absent hour does not mean zero.

These are provider predictions, not independently measured arrivals. Missing evidence is not counted as on-time service.

Calculated: Nov 4, 2026

2 partial-capture days not counted.

What about time of day?

18 hourly cohorts meet the thresholds of 30 predictions and 5 service days. Hourly thresholds are assessed separately from the route-wide aggregate.

Improvement or decline requires comparable periods. This single result cannot establish a trend.

Explore the dated evidence Source of this result

Buses arriving bunched

Last 28 days, October 7, 2026 to November 3, 2026: 25 days counted.

2 days left out because the live feed was only partly recorded or its trip numbers did not match the timetable: October 8, 2026, October 15, 2026.

Values and interpretation

0% of back-to-back buses on this route arrived bunched together: 44 of 35,378 pairs checked at stops in the last 28 days. When buses bunch, the wait after them is usually longer.

0% of pairs (55) had a long gap: more than 1.75 times the planned wait between them.

Buses arriving bunched
Tó: nikahwistá:ke	Pairs checked	Bunched	Long gap
Morning rush (6 to 9 a.m.)	3,170	0% (3)	0% (1)
Midday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m.)	17,631	0% (18)	0% (23)
Afternoon rush (3 to 6 p.m.)	8,463	0% (22)	0% (31)
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.)	6,114	0% (1)	0% (0)

Tsi ní:ioht →How we got this numberBunching and slow spots on every route →

Where this route is slowest

Slowest: KITTIWAKE / SUNDEW to STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP, 17.4 km/h actual against 21.6 km/h planned.

Where this route is slowest
Tsi nón:we	Tsi nón:we	Tsi niió:re (distance)	Planned speed	Actual speed	Trips measured	Slow trips
KITTIWAKE / SUNDEW	STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP	1.6 km	21.6 km/h	17.4 km/h	709	21%
STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP	KITTIWAKE / ABACA	1.7 km	29.3 km/h	19.8 km/h	687	45%
TERRY FOX 3C	CASTLEFRANK / MACNEIL	2.2 km	22.1 km/h	20.9 km/h	609	6%
STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP	ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE	2.8 km	28.1 km/h	24.9 km/h	703	16%
CASTLEFRANK / MACNEIL	ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE	4.6 km	28 km/h	25 km/h	687	1%
ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE	CASTLEFRANK / MACNEIL	4.7 km	26.6 km/h	25.9 km/h	611	1%
HAZELDEAN / CARP	KITTIWAKE / SUNDEW	1.1 km	39.8 km/h	27.3 km/h	656	47%
ABBOTT / GRANITE RIDGE	STITTSVILLE MAIN / CARP	2.8 km	29 km/h	27.6 km/h	688	1%

A slow trip took at least 1.5 times the planned time.

Tsi ní:ioht →

Cancellations on this route

What these words mean →

2 partial-capture days not counted.

3 scheduled trips with counted cancellation notices from Wed, Oct 7 to Tue, Nov 3.

Not counted: 22 trips with qualifying later matching vehicle observations and 0 for trips not in that day’s timetable.

Hours with the most cancellations: 7 a.m. (1), 8 a.m. (1), 5 p.m. (1)

Latest cancelled trips

Mon, Nov 2, scheduled 07:00
Fri, Oct 16, scheduled 17:11
Wed, Oct 14, scheduled 08:31

OC Transpo gives no reason for single trips, so none is shown.

Did not come (no bus seen, no notice), last 7 days: 2 of 409 trips we could check.

Open the dated prediction analysis

Ka' nikarihò:ten

What this route needs

Median provider predictions are 3.6 to 3.9 min later than the timetable in 2 hours of the day.

Predictions near the start are about 2.7 min later than the timetable, with a similar difference near the end. This does not establish the cause.

14:00 has 60% of predictions within five minutes of the timetable, against 80% the rest of the day.

Matched public positions cover 100% of scheduled trips. This is a lower bound on operated service, not an audited delivery result.

Next investigation: test terminal recovery and the preceding trip against operational records. Predictions alone do not establish the cause.

Final provider predictions within five minutes of the timetable, by hour, last 14 days, 18 hours with samples

00:00: not enough data
01:00: not enough data
02:00: not enough data
03:00: not enough data
04:00: not enough data
05:00: not enough data
06:00: 90.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,435 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
07:00: 72.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,777 predictions, typically 2.7 min late
08:00: 79.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,908 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
09:00: 82.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,149 predictions, typically 2 min late
10:00: 81.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,070 predictions, typically 2 min late
11:00: 77.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,032 predictions, typically 2.4 min late
12:00: 79.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,071 predictions, typically 1.5 min late
13:00: 76.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,032 predictions, typically 2 min late
14:00: 59.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,035 predictions, typically 3.9 min late
15:00: 69.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,006 predictions, typically 2.8 min late
16:00: 72.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,019 predictions, typically 2.9 min late
17:00: 66.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,854 predictions, typically 3.6 min late
18:00: 81.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,798 predictions, typically 1.2 min late
19:00: 86.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,792 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
20:00: 80.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,273 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
21:00: 95.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 897 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
22:00: 90.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 791 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
23:00: 100% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 40 predictions, typically 0.6 min early

90% or more of predictions within five minutes
80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
under 80% of predictions within five minutes
not enough data

Findings
What	Ó:nen	Tewaterièn:tare	Scenario or next investigation
ProblemPredictions later than timetable	14:00 · 17:00	3.9 min late · 3.6 min late	Recovery time at the terminal
ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match	14:00	60%	Operations, not the timetable
StrengthObserved-position lower bound	All measured hours	100%	Keep what works

Measurements

Predictions later than timetable · 14:00: Measured arrivals 2,035; Hours affected 1; Spread 10.8 min; Median delay 3.9 min; Suggested running time change 3.9 min
Predictions later than timetable · 17:00: Measured arrivals 1,854; Hours affected 1; Spread 15.3 min; Median delay 3.6 min; Suggested running time change 3.6 min
One hour has a lower prediction match · 14:00: Hour 14:00; Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes 59.7%; Measured arrivals 2,035; Shortfall 20.3 pts; Route median on time 80.1%
Observed-position lower bound · All measured hours: Tsi niió:re 99.5%; Trips with a matching position 99.5%; Wenhniserá:tens tsi ioió'te 6; Trips with a matching position 407; Schedule trips 409

Open history, reliability and route analysis

Route check

How route 163 has been running

A short summary of what we know. We say so when we cannot answer a question.

Bottom line

Provider predictions often differed from the timetable; actual arrivals were not independently measured.

78 in 100 eligible predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable · 57,205 predictions checked

Prediction sample size: Larger sample

Based on 57,205 eligible provider predictions over 27 measured days, from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 1:43 a.m.

Where and when did predictions differ repeatedly?

These are repeated prediction-to-timetable differences, not independently measured service failures. They use the same eligible predictions as the result above, but group by stop rather than hour, so the lists need not match line for line.

14–15: 40 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,035 predictions over 14 days).
17–18: 34 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,854 predictions over 14 days).
15–16: 30 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (2,006 predictions over 14 days).

No current official notice matches this route.

Prediction differences by stop

KITTIWAKE / ABACA
34 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (1,645 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
ABBOTT / ROBERT GRANT
32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (825 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
ABBOTT / TALLTREE
32 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (827 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop
HAZELDEAN / CARP
31 in 100 eligible predictions differed from the timetable by more than 5 minutes (835 predictions over 29 days).
Open this stop

These are route-specific provider predictions compared with the timetable. They identify repeated prediction differences at a place and time, not measured arrivals or their cause.

Check every trip and date

Open a time period to see each service day, scheduled trip, feed gap, observed public vehicle ID, and the exact counts behind this summary.

What riders want to know

Is any trip cancelled right now?: 0 of 4Checks trips starting at route endpoints in the next 4 hours. This is not a historical cancellation rate.
Possible no-shows after checking feed gaps?: 2 of 409 checked trips need a closer look2 of 409 trips with enough public-feed evidence had no matching position over 7 days. 0 of 409 scheduled trips were excluded because the feed record was incomplete. These are cases to investigate, not confirmed no-shows.
How did provider predictions differ from the timetable?: At the 95th percentile, the predicted difference was 15.8 min (positive means later; negative means earlier)78 in 100 eligible provider predictions were within 5 minutes of the timetable; actual arrivals were not measured here.
What wait did provider predictions imply?: No route-level result meets the evidence threshold yet. This does not mean gaps did not happen.

Schedule change check

Published schedule: before and after

This compares the current retained official schedule with the prior retained version. Schedule changes are facts about what was planned. They do not prove that a trip ran.

Current published schedule began October 30, 2026

Selected service day from each published schedule

We check ne first Monday after ne á:se schedule began, tánon ne Monday one week earlier. Akwé:kon figures, official GTFS versions named below.

At least one selected date uses added or removed calendar-date service. Treat this as holiday or special-service context, not ordinary weekday growth.

Ohén:ton

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: October 26, 2026

Schedule trips: 63
Distinct scheduled stops: 73
Distinct published paths: 2
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 06:00–23:07

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 1d13d0abb2506002 · 3932bee1-4577-4968-9a97-2987e88312ad

New schedule

Wenhniserá:te wahatkáhtho: November 2, 2026

Schedule trips: 63
Distinct scheduled stops: 73
Distinct published paths: 2
Kahiatónhsera: tsi niió:re ne kà:sere: 06:00–23:07

Operator calendar-date records: 0 added · 2 removed

Kahiatónhsera: 91dd8e4251604344 · 6ee8491d-8f94-4122-a67b-ef228d9e0945

Did service improve after the change?

Enkwatkáhtho' ne arrivals 14 wenhniserá:tens tsi niió:re aorí:wa ne change tánon' ohnà:ken. Ne tsi enkwatkáhtho' entewahró:ri' tsi nikarì:wes ne 7 wenhniserá:tens tánon' 200 arrivals iá:ken'.

Still collecting: before has 30,032 arrivals over 14 days; after has 10,407 arrivals over 5 days. No improvement or decline is claimed yet.

Checksums let anyone verify which retained timetable produced the counts. A changed count does not identify a cause, cancellation, operator decision, or passenger impact.

How this route is judged: Regular all-stop route

We compare the last eligible provider prediction for each scheduled arrival with the official schedule. These are not independently measured arrivals. A result needs at least 200 eligible predictions. Within 5 minutes is the rider-facing target used here.

What this data cannot prove

The public feed does not provide dependable passenger counts or passed-up-rider events. A missing position does not by itself prove a cancellation, no-show, short turn or cause.

See the definitions, thresholds and evidence order

Official current feed: explicit cancellations, skipped stops and active notices.
Matched observations: vehicle positions and settled predictions tied to the official schedule.
Official timetable: what was planned, kept separate from what was observed.
Rider and operator reports: leads about routes, times and places to investigate, not numeric proof by themselves.

Provisional results, published evidence

How did predictions compare with the timetable?

Each hour compares the last eligible provider prediction for a scheduled arrival with the timetable. “Within 5 minutes” describes that prediction difference, not a measured arrival or proof that a bus ran.

Evidence window: October 5, 2026 to November 2, 2026

Within 5 minutes of schedule: 77.6%
Eligible predictions checked: 57,205
Weekdays with data: 19
95th-percentile predicted delay: 15.8 min late

Patterns by hour (18)

Patterns by hour (18)
Hour	Ioiánere tsi nikarì:wes	Median	95th percentile	Tsi tó:kenske
06:00	90.5%	1.7 min late	8.1 min late	1,435 · 13 days
07:00	72.9%	2.7 min late	16.3 min late	1,777 · 14 days
08:00	79.1%	1.7 min late	14.7 min late	1,908 · 14 days
09:00	82.3%	2 min late	16.5 min late	2,149 · 14 days
10:00	81.3%	2 min late	16.6 min late	2,070 · 14 days
11:00	77.9%	2.4 min late	14.8 min late	2,032 · 14 days
12:00	79.8%	1.5 min late	13.5 min late	2,071 · 14 days
13:00	76.3%	2 min late	15.4 min late	2,032 · 14 days
14:00	59.7%	3.9 min late	14.7 min late	2,035 · 14 days
15:00	69.8%	2.8 min late	18.1 min late	2,006 · 14 days
16:00	72.7%	2.9 min late	18.9 min late	2,019 · 14 days
17:00	66.5%	3.6 min late	18.9 min late	1,854 · 14 days
18:00	81.6%	1.2 min late	15.6 min late	1,798 · 14 days
19:00	86.2%	1.4 min late	13.7 min late	1,792 · 14 days
20:00	80.3%	1.9 min late	14.5 min late	1,273 · 12 days
21:00	95.5%	1.3 min late	3.9 min late	897 · 12 days
22:00	90.3%	1.7 min late	16.5 min late	791 · 12 days
23:00	100.0%	0.6 min early	2.4 min late	40 · 8 days

3 hourly block(s) are below 70% across at least three service days: a repeated pattern, not one bad day.

Scheduled bus, but not observed in realtime

407 / 409 scheduled trips published at least one position across 6 service days (99.5%).

17:001 / 24 trips without a position95.8%
16:001 / 28 trips without a position96.4%
06:000 / 21 trips without a position100.0%
07:000 / 25 trips without a position100.0%
08:000 / 26 trips without a position100.0%
09:000 / 28 trips without a position100.0%

This is not a confirmed no-show. A missing position can mean a cancelled or missed bus, but it can also mean an unassigned trip ID or an operator-feed gap. Otranspo publishes the gap because it matters to riders while keeping the conclusion honest.

Prediction check: the last eligible provider prediction no earlier than ten minutes before the scheduled arrival, counted once per trip, stop and scheduled Toronto calendar date. It is compared with the timetable, not an independently measured arrival. Trip-position check: the timetable kept before each service day, matched to recorded positions. Exact IDs are preferred; an OC timetable suffix is matched only to one trip on the same route and date with an overlapping time window. Missing timetables, ambiguous matches and feed gaps stay labelled; they are not confirmed no-shows. Sources and limitations.

Dated service

Trips scheduled that day

The timetable, notices and what the live feed says are shown apart. Seeing a bus on the map does not prove you can board it.

Service day

November 3, 2026 November 2, 2026 November 1, 2026 October 31, 2026 October 30, 2026 October 29, 2026 October 28, 2026

November 3, 2026 · 63 trips in the retained timetable · retained notices; capture coverage unverified

In short: 63 with a matched position · 0 with no matching position (to investigate) · 0 with an unknown outcome.

06:00– 06:32
Trip 13962030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:42 a.m. EST / 6:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:00– 06:31
Trip 17662030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:35 a.m. EST / 6:32 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:30– 07:02
Trip 12192030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:12 a.m. EST / 6:57 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
06:35– 07:10
Trip 32234030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 5:52 a.m. EST / 7:24 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:00– 07:34
Trip 26015030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:44 a.m. EST / 7:30 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:05– 07:40
Trip 27400030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:22 a.m. EST / 7:54 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:30– 08:06
Trip 26640030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:25 a.m. EST / 8:02 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
07:36– 08:14
Trip 21593030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 6:53 a.m. EST / 8:12 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:00– 08:33
Trip 17219030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 7:55 a.m. EST / 8:31 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:09– 08:45
Trip 22923030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:03 a.m. EST / 8:53 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:31– 09:05
Trip 31726030Explicit notice: CANCELEDVehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:29 a.m. EST / 9:57 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.
08:36– 09:09
Trip 5905030Vehicle position matchedFirst / last feed position: 8:32 a.m. EST / 9:24 a.m. EST; not actual start or end times.

· Open all evidence for this day

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This page is a machine draft in Mohawk (Kanien’kéha), the language of the Kanien’kehá:ka (Mohawk) communities. It was prepared without review by its speakers, and is waiting for one. Speakers and the community are invited to correct it. We will replace it with their words. Ottawa is on the unceded territory of the Anishinabe Algonquin Nation.

Cette page est une ébauche automatique en mohawk (kanien’kéha), la langue des communautés kanien’kehá:ka (mohawks). Elle a été préparée sans révision par ses locuteurs, et attend l’un d’eux. Les locuteurs et la communauté sont invités à la corriger. Nous la remplacerons par leurs mots. Ottawa se trouve sur le territoire non cédé de la Nation algonquine anishinabe (Anishinabe Algonquin Nation).