Ward 19 · Ottawa · Councillor: Catherine Kitts
Orléans South-Navan
Orléans South-Navan: 78.6% of predictions within five minutes.
- Within five minutes
- 78.6%
- Stops in the ward
- 309
- Routes serving it
- 27
- Cancelled trips
- Not available yet
- Not counted per ward yet
Where it is slowest
- 80% and up 5
- 60 to 80% 4
- Under 60% 1
- Too little data 17
Routes serving the ward, by their share of predictions within five minutes. Each route result covers the whole route.
Routes in this ward
| Oháha | Within 5 min | Cancelled | Akwé:kon ronnónhstats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 57.8% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 31 | 70.3% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 24 | 71.4% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 25 | 77.0% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 30 | 78.3% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 39 | 80.2% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 34 | 82.0% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
| 33 | 82.1% | Iah tekahiá:tonte | Iah tekahiá:tonte |
Cancellations and crowding are not published per route yet. 17 routes with too little data or a different service purpose are left out.
All routes and their sourcesOne-page brief
A printable summary of this ward for council and community meetings, with the same numbers, the method in plain words and dated sources.
What can be verified in Orléans South-Navan?
Arrival predictions, the imported timetable and train notices. Each is shown with its own source.
Provider prediction agreement
78.6%
of eligible predictions within five minutes of schedule
- How this compares
- Rank 11 of 22 · median 78.4%
Service, per the imported timetable
- Scheduled trips at ward stops
- Not available yet
- Ohahà:
- 27
- Ne train lines
- 0
Kà:sere ó:nen kèn:'en
The live buses inside this boundary are on the Map tab.
Prediction measure, timetable inventory and methods
Service delivery · evidence state
Cancellations at stops in this ward
Not publishableNo zero or missed trip is inferred when exact stop calls cannot be published.
Predictions at stops inside the ward
78.6% within five minutes of the timetable across 179,505 eligible final provider predictions and 20 weekdays. These are not verified physical arrivals.
Predictions do not prove physical arrival.
Routes to inspect
Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026If available, these are route-wide vehicle-position matches for routes serving the ward. They do not locate a missed trip inside this ward or prove a cancellation. Each comparison uses scheduled trips for that same route and window.
- 3020 of 2 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
- 391,106 of 1,128 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
- 36449 of 455 scheduled trips had a matched vehicle positionInspect days
Scheduled calls, sources and limits
27 routes · 309 stops. Timetable inventory, not trips delivered.
Cancellations at stops in this ward
Local count cannot be published
Exact stop-call evidence could not be read for Oct 28, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026. No zero is assumed.
Dates, source versions and limits
Method: retained-pre-service-exact-trip-stop-call-v1. Cancellation-feed completeness and position coverage are unverified.
The retained timetables were fetched, imported and first activated before the service day. The archive does not prove they remained the active timetables throughout that period. Comparisons between places remain unavailable.
Ka' nikarihò:ten
What would fix transit here
Worked out from the routes that serve this ward. Each item names the route, when it happens, and what would change it.
9 of 10 show repeated provider predictions later than the timetable, consistent with a possible scheduled running-time shortfall. A scheduler should test that scenario against operations; labour, fleet, recovery and transfer impacts are not established here.
Worst here: route 24, predictions later than timetable 14:00 to 19:00, 4.3 min late.
Best here: route 30, observed-position lower bound, 100%.
10 of 10 routes here had something measurable to report.
- 00:00: 95.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,613 predictions, typically 0.9 min late
- 01:00: 87.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,073 predictions, typically 0.7 min late
- 02:00: 81.5% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,766 predictions, typically 1 min late
- 03:00: 80.4% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 1,748 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
- 04:00: 80.9% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 2,409 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
- 05:00: 88.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 6,979 predictions, typically 1.3 min late
- 06:00: 88.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 17,039 predictions, typically 1 min late
- 07:00: 75% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,528 predictions, typically 2 min late
- 08:00: 72.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 25,272 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
- 09:00: 80.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 23,611 predictions, typically 1.7 min late
- 10:00: 83.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,346 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
- 11:00: 83.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,418 predictions, typically 1.6 min late
- 12:00: 82.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,413 predictions, typically 1.9 min late
- 13:00: 79.8% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 24,340 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
- 14:00: 75.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 25,242 predictions, typically 2.3 min late
- 15:00: 73.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 26,675 predictions, typically 2.5 min late
- 16:00: 63% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 25,870 predictions, typically 3.5 min late
- 17:00: 65.1% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 27,407 predictions, typically 3 min late
- 18:00: 71.2% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 25,209 predictions, typically 2.3 min late
- 19:00: 78.3% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 21,136 predictions, typically 2.1 min late
- 20:00: 84.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 20,133 predictions, typically 1.4 min late
- 21:00: 81.7% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 18,263 predictions, typically 1.8 min late
- 22:00: 81.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 12,128 predictions, typically 2 min late
- 23:00: 85.6% of final predictions within five minutes of the timetable, 8,260 predictions, typically 1.1 min late
- 90% or more of predictions within five minutes
- 80 to 90% of predictions within five minutes
- under 80% of predictions within five minutes
- not enough data
| What | Ó:nen | Tewaterièn:tare | Scenario or next investigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProblemPredictions later than timetable2431253332393036349 routes | 14:00 to 19:00 … 05:00 | 4.3 min late … 3.8 min late | More running time |
| ProblemWide prediction spread241 routes | 16:00 | 25.5 min swing | Operations, not the timetable |
| ProblemOne hour has a lower prediction match24253330343536328 routes | 16:00 … 19:00 | 42% … 25% | Operations, not the timetable |
| StrengthObserved-position lower bound303534314 routes | All measured hours | 100% | Keep what works |
| CaveatCoverage gap3925363324326 routes | All measured hours | 98% · 99% | More observation, not a service change |
How ORLÉANS SOUTH-NAVAN is doing
These indicators separate repeated delay from changes in the operator's arrival predictions. They suggest questions for planners and operations staff. They do not show the cause. They do not prove when buses arrived. Each figure shows its route-hour sample.
Measured over 189 route-hours. 2 more were observed too thinly to count, and are excluded rather than assumed good.
Scheduling
Repeated late predictions can point to a timetable worth reviewing. Check actual arrival and dispatch records before deciding whether running time needs to change.
- Who can fix it
- A service planner
- What it costs
- Iah tewaterièn:tare tó: nikaná:ien tsi niió:re ahontkáhtho ne ká'sere, ne raotiio'te tánon ne ò:ia.
Tsi ní:ioht kahiatónhsera tánon tsi nihawen:'en iah teiotsén:ion
78.3%
Route-hours: median arrival prediction iáh énska minute early, iáh áhsen minutes late.
Route-hours with repeated late predictions
41of 189
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least three minutes late. Review running time against actual operating records.
Route hours with early predictions
0of 189
Route-hours where the median eligible arrival prediction is at least one minute early. This does not show that buses left early.
Typical predicted delay
3.5min
The typical median predicted delay in flagged route-hours. It is not a validated amount to add to the timetable.
Operations
Iah skátne tewaterièn:tare tsi nahò:ten tó: nikahá:wi ne ká'sere ienkahá:wi. Ensewatkáhtho tsi niiorihò:ten. Ne ká'sere tsi niiohà:te, ne ronterihwakhéhtha, ne ahontá:wen tánon ne tsi kahiatónhsera tsi nikahá:wi iaonteweien'tà:'on. Iah ne ne'ne tsi ienkahá:wi ne tsi ahontaterièn:tara'ne tsi nahò:ten ne rorihwatsíhston.
- Who can fix it
- Ne ronterihwaién:tas, ó:ni oháha
- What it costs
- Cost unavailable until the operational cause and remedy are established.
Prediction gap below twenty minutes
99.5%
Ne tsi niiohà:te tánon ne ora'shòn:'a tsi nahò:ten ne 95-percentile ne tsi ienkahá:wi ne ká'sere iah tewáhsen minits tsi nikaié:rite tsi nà:'a ne median.
Route-hours with wide prediction gaps
1of 189
Route-hours where the 95th-percentile eligible prediction is at least twenty minutes later than the median. The cause needs investigation.
Typical prediction gap
25.5min
The usual gap between the 95th-percentile prediction and the median in flagged route-hours.
Service, per the imported timetable
Scheduled transit, provider prediction agreement with the timetable, and public services in this ward.
- 27
- Ohahà:
Provider prediction agreement
78.6% of eligible provider predictions were within five minutes of the timetable. 141,082 of 179,505 settled trip-stop predictions at stops inside this ward matched that range across 20 weekdays with feed evidence, from Oct 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. These are provider predictions, not independently observed arrivals.
2 partial-capture days not counted.
- Predictions within five minutes
- 141,082
- Eligible trip-stop predictions
- 179,505
- Observed days
- 20 weekdays
How this compares
Ranked 11 of 22 measured wards. 0.2 points above the city median of 78.4%.
Highest: ward 22 at 85.1%. Lowest: ward 21 at 60.3%.
Only wards whose evidence meets the publication threshold are ranked. Same window and same method for each.
Which routes need closer review
10 of the 27 routes serving this ward have enough provider-prediction evidence to compare. Lowest timetable agreement first.
- 32Open route 57.8%Predictions within five minutes
10,325 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 31Open route 70.3%Predictions within five minutes
84,248 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 24Open route 71.4%Predictions within five minutes
129,384 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 25Open route 77.0%Predictions within five minutes
150,538 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 30Open route 78.3%Predictions within five minutes
65,667 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 39Open route 80.2%Predictions within five minutes
87,906 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 34Open route 82.0%Predictions within five minutes
66,687 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 33Open route 82.1%Predictions within five minutes
72,386 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 36Open route 86.6%Predictions within five minutes
58,190 eligible predictions across the whole route
- 35Open route 87.4%Predictions within five minutes
61,617 eligible predictions across the whole route
17 more routes here are not ranked: school, express, shopper or event service, whose schedule result does not compare the same way.
Vehicle visibility to investigate
Vehicle visibility to investigate
The current summary uses seven days. For every route, you can also open yesterday, the last 7 days, or the last 30 days and inspect the day, scheduled trip, excluded feed gaps, and every observed public vehicle ID. An absence does not prove a vehicle fault or operator decision.
| Oháha | Schedule trips | With a position | Without a matched position | Coverage | Oriwà:ke |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 302 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |
| 39 | 1,128 | 1,106 | 22 | 98.0% | |
| 36 | 455 | 449 | 6 | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 80 | 79 | 1 | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 470 | 465 | 5 | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 760 | 754 | 6 | 99.2% | |
| 226 | 120 | 119 | 1 | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 618 | 614 | 4 | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 502 | 500 | 2 | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 453 | 451 | 2 | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 446 | 444 | 2 | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 471 | 470 | 1 | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 526 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 221 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 228 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 222 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 539 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 618 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 622 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 630 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 641 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 637 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 634 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 631 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 648 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% | |
| 612 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% |
Routes serving the ward
27 scheduled routesBus routes · 27
- 221Kahserowá:nen
- 222Kahserowá:nen
- 226Kahserowá:nen
- 228Kahserowá:nen
- 234Kahserowá:nen
- 24Kahserowá:nen
- 25Kahserowá:nen
- 30Kahserowá:nen
- 302Kahserowá:nen
- 31Kahserowá:nen
- 32Kahserowá:nen
- 33Kahserowá:nen
- 34Kahserowá:nen
- 35Kahserowá:nen
- 36Kahserowá:nen
- 39Kahserowá:nen
- 526Kahserowá:nen
- 539Kahserowá:nen
- 612Kahserowá:nen
- 618Kahserowá:nen
- 622Kahserowá:nen
- 630Kahserowá:nen
- 631Kahserowá:nen
- 634Kahserowá:nen
- 637Kahserowá:nen
- 641Kahserowá:nen
- 648Kahserowá:nen
Train lines · 0
No train line has a stop in this ward in the imported schedule.
Map & current service
Current service inside this boundary
Scheduled lines, stops, and observed buses share one map. Select a route or vehicle for details.
Evidence & sources
Imported municipal polygon · 56 boundary vertices · City of Ottawa ward boundaries · imported Aug 4, 2026
Public amenity record for this ward
Public washrooms and drinking water
Choose a category to check which location details are available.Public washrooms (City data) 4
The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.
Drinking water (City data) 2
The public ward snapshot publishes the count but not the individual locations for this ward. No locations are being invented.
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Evidence included with the draft
- Canonical Otranspo evidence link
- https://otranspo.ca/moh/city/wards/19
- Sources and time
- Sources and time: open the linked report for its source records and published or imported timestamps.
- Limitations
- Limitations: Otranspo is independent and may show unknown, suppressed, delayed, or corrected values. Confirm urgent or current service matters with the official agency.
Rate or report an issue
Rider evidence
Community reports
Signals below are moderated community aggregates, not official operator notices or reliability scores.
You can report without signing in. Anonymous reports count a little less when we calculate public patterns. You can add an account after submitting.
Report a specific problem
- Graffiti
- Cleanliness
- Lighting
- Snow or ice
- Washroom unavailable
- Water unavailable
- Accessibility barrier
- Other issue
Emergency: call 9-1-1. Check official OC Transpo or STO notices before travelling.
Civic evidence brief
The identity, boundary, contacts, service scope and evidence dates behind this ward report, kept together so the page can be cited without losing its qualifications.
- Municipality
- City of Ottawa, Ontario
- Geographic unit
- Official City of Ottawa municipal ward 19: ORLÉANS SOUTH-NAVAN
- Boundary and vintage
- City ward layer · effective not published · imported August 4, 2026
- Official civic contacts
- Catherine Kitts · Councillor · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
- Mark Sutcliffe · Rakowá:nen · source check is older than the publication threshold · source checked August 4, 2026 · official City contact source
- Relevant scheduled service
- 27 public route records with a stop inside this boundary · operators: OC Transpo
- Transit evidence vintage
- Timetable import: not published · reliability window: Oct 3, 2026 – Nov 3, 2026
A ward boundary, route inventory, destination list, population count or employment count supplies civic context. None of those values alone measures passenger demand, household trip effects, transfers or daily attendance.
Ottawa wards are municipal wards. They are not Gatineau electoral districts, and results from the two boundary systems are not interchangeable.
Evidence behind this pageOpen the definition, method, sources, dates, coverage, and known limits.
What is being shown
A ward-level inventory of scheduled transit, public washrooms, drinking-water locations, and eligible final OC Transpo provider predictions at stops inside the ward.
How it was produced
Current imported records are assigned by point-in-polygon to the sourced ward boundary. Reliability uses one eligible final provider prediction per trip, stop, and service date in the latest 28 completed service days. Within five minutes is measured against the timetable, not a physical arrival. Publication requires 20 weekdays with prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions.
Evidence dates
- Imported
- Computed or assembled
- Kén:k nikón
- 179,505 eligible settled provider predictions across 20 weekdays with prediction evidence support the reliability result.
- Method or data version
- ward-counts-v1 + ward-stop-settled-arrivals-purpose-aware-v3
- Source checksum
- ward-reliability:baf34788f72099b4da00e7daccbcbc37ee1fbb8a46f9ba50c403b412d7b07a26
Tsi nón: ionkwaién:ta'
Limits to keep in mind
- Counts describe the published inventory inside the boundary, not service quality or access from every address.
- Reliability covers final OC Transpo provider predictions at geographically assigned stops; physical arrivals are not independently measured. Rail and trips without eligible prediction evidence are not represented.
- An unavailable count remains unavailable. It is not changed to zero.
Tsi ní:ioht tsi iakwaié:ren
For each trip, stop and service date at stops inside the ward, we keep the last eligible OC Transpo prediction and compare it with the timetable. It counts as within five minutes when the two are no more than five minutes apart. This is not a physical arrival.
The window is the latest 28 completed service days. A result is published only with 20 weekdays of prediction evidence and 500 eligible predictions. Route results cover each whole route, not only the part inside the ward.
Read the full methodContains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – City of Ottawa.